Preface:
Life is like a marathon. When you first set off, you will be shoulder to shoulder. At that time, maybe we cannot lead and not outstanding enough, but as long as we do not give up on ourselves, we will reach the end sooner or later. As long as we have dreams in our hearts, we will be different. And the harder you work, the more you will find that the road toward your dreams and goals is really not crowded.
Technical analysis:
There are too many things in life that always make us worry, there are many unclear market conditions, always make us worry, let everything go naturally, be calm when we encounter things, be calm when we are proud, be calm when we are frustrated, be calm when we are frustrated, be calm when we are struggling, be hard-working and twists will inevitably be inevitable, and after all the vicissitudes of life, there is no regression in the market, as long as we are willing to learn, no matter what experience we need to understand, no matter what experience we need to understand.
First of all, the whole country is celebrating; the mountains and rivers are magnificent, the years are prosperous; the country is not old, and the motherland is evergreen. At the same time, I wish you a happy holiday. The gold market ended with a six-month decline. As some safe-haven demand re-entered the market, market sentiment has improved, but it has never been possible to reverse the pattern of negative decline. From the perspective of the annual line level, there is no doubt that 2022 is a challenging year for gold. As the geopolitical situation continues, inflation rises, and global economic turmoil intensifies, gold did not react at all. Despite the economic sluggishness, gold prices are still on the road of weakness, and at the same time, bearish investors are attacking with all their strength, and negative sentiment is therefore even at the highest level in four years.
Looking back on the trends in the past few years, the last time the gold market fell for six consecutive months was from April to September 2018. After September, gold began to form a strong upward trend, and finally rose above the $2,000 mark in one fell swoop to a historical high, but the market is not exactly the same. History can only be learned from and cannot be copied. The timing is dominated by the times. The rebound that year was backlogged for a long time and was driven by the impact of the epidemic. At present, gold has become dull and just wants to return to the volatile range of the year, so the rebound is just a seasoning, not a reversal signal.
Many people in the market are looking for sparks to ignite the next bull market in gold. The biggest link is Fed . The Fed's active monetary policy has pushed the actual bond yield from around -1% at the beginning of the year to around 1%. This in turn pushes the dollar to its highest level in 20 years. These are the two major headwinds facing gold prices. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has begun to put pressure on the global economy, and the extreme strength of the US dollar is causing serious imbalances in the global foreign exchange market.
Although the inflation rates in Europe and the United States continue to rise, the US dollar reached a 20-year high earlier this week, and the overall price of gold tends to fluctuate. Although the lowest below was only around 1615 after the key support of 1670 broke, this will not be the end point. After all, the Federal Reserve's eagle sound continues. The rebound of gold prices is the sharp decline of the US dollar from its 20-year high, alleviating the pressure facing gold. This is also called the end-of-month fixed-trading model. When the geopolitical situation is tense, gold is regarded as a safe-haven asset, but don't forget that the US dollar is also a safe-haven asset. Fundamentally speaking, the rise of the US dollar is destined to fall in gold.
We look at the framework pattern of gold prices next week from a technical perspective. 1670~1680 forms an effective support for one year. After the recent break, this support will definitely form a suppression. Therefore, the recent suppression around 1670~1700 can be built. Looking at the support in the range of 1630~1600, we can look at the weekly line. Every strong rebound of gold prices is accompanied by a strong drop. The rebound position is constantly pulled down, and the bottom support continues to show new lows. Needless to say, the gold price has not completely bottomed out at this moment. The bottom range is expected to be around the range of 1500~1300. At this time, 1600 throw has room for falling, so try to focus on high altitude.
Brother Yin's words, at this time, it is still fluctuating at the 19th mark, and the 19th mark also forms a subtle relationship. It is logically an excellent position here. After all, the big brother has fallen below the 1670 support, and the downward trend is the 1600~1500 range. Convert to the corresponding Brother Yin, that is the 16~15 range. Therefore, Brother Yin is at a high level at this time, and can use a long line to catch big fish and build a position around the 19~19.7 range. Look at the first support of 18.3~17.5 and the subsequent mid-term target of 17.1~16.5. As for the bottom 15 range, it is a later story. The market rebound gives you a chance. As long as you do not break the 20th mark, the short-term rebound will be a paper tiger, so don't panic.
Data and events to pay attention to next week: Next Monday: US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index Next Wednesday: US ADP non-farm employment data, ISM non-manufacturing data Next Thursday: US initial unemployment claims next Friday: US non-farm employment report
Dream has not been realized, and the distance has not arrived yet, so don't stop running hard, it is never too late to work hard!
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