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Recent market discussions have continued to discuss the macro-major article published by Credit Suisse researcher Zoltan Polzsar. Our team had arranged collective learning as early as the second day of the report and gained some new cognition and understanding.
Western analysts believe that the current situation is mainly industrial, inflation and development issues, but what if a unipolar ability is so strong that it triggers the rearrangement of the world order? This is a lifeline problem, and inflation may not even be a topic.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has led to an energy crisis in Europe this year, and China's energy crisis has been worrying for decades. Among China's crude oil import sources, Middle East accounts for more than 30%. The Middle East crude oil transportation path is mainly sea transportation, passing through the Indian Ocean, crossing the Malacca Strait , and then heading north from South China Sea .
This path has the shortest distance, the most economical, but also the least safe. In addition to considering the capacity risks in the Strait of Malacca, there are also political and military factors, such as India and beautiful countries with bases in Singapore can be cut off at any time.
China has been working hard to get rid of this huge energy risk. and Pakistan build China-Pakistan Economic Corridor , operate Gwadar Port ; and Myanmar build large oil pipelines, operate Sri Lanka and Maldives ; and even once proposed to smash the canal between Thailand and Malaysia .
This time period, although Russia and China are back to back, they do not trust enough. The end point of the natural gas pipeline is to choose Daqing , or to listen to Japan's choice Vladivostok , Russia is undecided. Singapore is even more meaningful. For a long time, the attitude towards China is hidden and pointed at it, and the obvious " Banana Man " mentality is obvious.
Fortunately, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor was finally completed, the China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline was also built, and the end of the China-Russia natural gas pipeline was set in Daqing. finally has some energy security, but it is far from enough. After the Trump administration came to power, the decoupling of China and the United States was not a question of whether China would like to do so, but rather that the United States must re-establish a new order and maintain its inherent advantages.
2019 Hong Kong incident led to the withdrawal of the Asian financial center to Singapore to the west, and received a large inflow of Chinese funds. The new rich are all mainland immigrants from the industrial entities in China. At this time, the attitude of the Singapore government has changed significantly. After all, the industry of the funder fathers is still in China, and it is not in line with Singapore's interests to continue to be biased towards the United States.
At the same time, China's "One Road" progress has played a role, the significance of the energy hub of the "Belt and Road" Malacca Strait has been loosened, and Singapore's attitude towards China has become more gentle. The energy foundation is the basic guarantee for industrial and economic development. Without energy security, stable industrial construction cannot be achieved. From the evolution of the aforementioned events, we can see that Chinese senior officials have always maintained a strategic vision.
In addition, it is superimposed on the huge historical opportunities brought by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The ideology presented in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the Western world is indeed very unfamiliar, or this is their original appearance. Russia had to turn east and reach a truly back-to-back strategic choice with China.
China is a land-powered country with a huge and sound industrial system, supplying important mid- and low-end products to the world, and occupying a large amount of international trade volume. It is more convenient to develop from Central Asia to Eastern Europe through " Silk Road ". But from Central Asia to the west is Russia's traditional sphere of influence, and it must obtain Russian investment and support.
Nowadays, Russia needs China's energy market, obtain Chinese capital to build Russian industrial infrastructure, and use Chinese goods to fill the Western retreat. China needs stable and safe energy, standard industrial chains and infrastructure output.
The SCO Summit held this week straightened out everything that you wanted to do but couldn't do before. China-Jiangxi-Ukraine Railway will be repaired soon, and the second natural gas pipeline in China and Russia will be opened. The most important thing is that Central Asian countries can take the "all the way" to China without any worries.The meeting has been included in Iran , and potential member states include Egypt , Saudi , Qatar and the UAE.
This is a huge market for energy + industry + population consumption, and nothing is happening here. The organization in which India and Pakistan are together, Saudi Arabia and Iran are together, the Western world may not understand.
Strategy and game require opportunities, and the European energy crisis caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is an opportunity. The current Sino-US game depends on who makes the mistake first. The United States hopes that China will take on inflation orders and China will always grasp the core of the industrial chain.
Industrial reshaping requires costs and resources, including land, manpower, energy and capital. The cost of rebuilding the industrial system is much higher than ten years ago, not to mention that the interest rate of the Federal Reserve is about to reach 4%. It is really uneconomical to repeatedly build a low-yield industrial system with such high costs, and it can only be an ideological need.
When the United States is hard decoupled, how to gain competitiveness? China's approach is: stable and cheap energy + sound industrial supporting facilities + cheap capital.
don’t worry about the RMB falling below the 7-word mark against the US dollar. The anchor of RMB pricing is trade, not foreign reserves. Short-term capital outflows and interest rate arbitrage will soon be filled with long-term trade surpluses.
Europe's largest chemical company is preparing to invest 10 billion euros in China to expand production, because Europe can't afford to produce, semiconductor company ABB has also added investment in China. Friends who are worried that decoupling will lead to economic shocks and technological blockades will cause systemic risks, may not understand that 5nm technology is not more useful than 28nm technology in the face of survival.
The Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates in , which is a gamble that may trigger systemic risks. The risk-free rate of return of 4% US dollar will trigger risks in other currencies and financial markets, and will also affect the operation of the US government.
In such an environment with high inflation, high capital costs and possible loss of the consumer market, industrial subsidies and fiscal expenditures must be made. No matter how you calculate this account, you need to pay for it. How to pay for
? High inflation and high interest rates, funds flow back to the United States, and energy and food are sold to Europe at high prices. The ending of is now clear, and it depends on the progress and evolution in the future. The situation in the peripheral financial markets depends on US policies and the Fed's statement.
This week the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again, with a high probability of adding 75BP, and the possibility of adding 100BP is not ruled out. To what extent will the Federal Reserve think that inflation is controllable? I guess they themselves don't know much.
The US economy relies on absorbing the blood of allies to maintain resilience. What if the consensus of the US interest body is not the current economy? U.S. stock may be difficult to withstand such high costs, and a decline is the best choice.
0 RMB breaking 7 will bring psychological impact on China's financial market, but it is not a bad thing to deal with economic difficulties internally. The decline in RMB can release the pressure on asset prices. Friends who are worried about room for housing prices to fall may feel more comfortable.
A shares 's decline is mainly affected by the collapse of funds on the market. The market capital market is still very abundant and there is no condition for systemic risks. After stabilizing energy security, internal policies are likely to solve some basic problems, such as real estate debt.
real estate is still the most important pricing asset for the government at present. The industry cycle and debt factors cannot be solved by simply banning. Private enterprise developers can lie down, but the government cannot lie down. After all, real estate debts and local debts behind them depend on each other. In this way, state-owned enterprises in the leading real estate chain are worth allocating.
The performance of Hong Kong stock is a bit strange. Ming card will continue to fall, is due to depletion of liquidity and financing costs increase. , but the market volatility narrows, , many stocks, , entered a negative decline stage, relying solely on market liquidity pricing, policies, industries and enterprises are ineffective in the face of stock price passivation. This is a market that is difficult for long and short to make profits, so be cautious.
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