U.S. stocks , U.S. oil, gold and silver closed sharply and ushered in "Black Friday" again
On September 23 (Friday), the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.62% to 29590.41 points, and the Nasdaq fell 1.8% to 10867.93 points. US stocks fell sharply and S&P 500 to give up all gains this summer. US NYMEX crude oil fell below the $80 mark to $79.43, a new low since January this year. Energy stocks, which are closely following crude oil stock prices, fell collectively by more than 5%.
The United States fell, and the European stock market was not much better, and it fell simultaneously.
European and American stock markets and Commodity sharp decline on the one hand is related to the violent rate hike in the United States, and on the other hand, it is related to its own economic development.
Judging from the US rate hike, on September 21, the Federal Reserve once again announced that it would raise the target range of the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, increasing it to between 3% and 3.25%, and has raised the rate hike by 300 points this year. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the "pain" brought by the series of interest rate hikes, including rising unemployment rates and adjustments to the real estate market.
Judging from European economic data, the initial value of manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in September fell from August 49.6 to September 48.5, lower than the expected 48.8, hitting a 27-month low.
Therefore, with the continued interest rate hike and appreciation of the US dollar, and the European economy is sluggish and demand is weakened, it will inevitably bring a new impact on the global economy.
Don’t underestimate the US rate hike. It not only affects overall global demand, especially consumer demand (the contraction will directly affect imports related to industrial finished products, after the weakening of import demand), but will also put pressure on global trade, transportation, etc. At the same time, we must be wary of its impact on the global financial market.
It can be said that violent interest rate hikes in the United States are a "gray rhino" to the world.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will be "long-term". Will there be a new food crisis in the world?
To this day, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has developed, and all parties still show confidence in perseverance to the end, and no one has room for concessions. Therefore, each place starts to increase its investment according to its own situation. Judging from the attitudes of all parties and the battlefield situation, it is becoming more and more "long-term".
Russia's increase in investment mainly lies in two aspects: one is to carry out a "referendum" and the other is to implement part of the recruitment mobilization.
According to the Russian newspaper Issue, the "referendum to Russia" between Luhansk, Donetsk, , , Zaporoze, , and , Khlsong, will be held from September 23 to 27 local time. In other words, today, whether the Ukrainian referendum to Russia has begun.
received news today that in Donetsk alone, the number of votes that favored joining the Russian Federation after the first day of the vote has accounted for 23.64% of the total number of votes!
Once the procedure for entering Russia is completed, the Ukrainian army wants to enter these four areas, which is an invasion for Russia. In the words of Vice Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Conference Medvedev :
Any Russian weapon, including strategic nuclear weapons and new weapons, can be used for defense for newly joined Russian territory.
The mobilization of the Russian recruitment part is progressing smoothly. After Putin’s speech at , the registration situation is still quite enthusiastic, and there is no problem with 300,000 new recruits enlisted. These new soldiers themselves are veterans and can be put on the battlefield after a brief training. With the completion of 300,000 new recruits, the support for Russia's relevant military production must be fully launched, and all resources will meet the needs of the war as much as possible. Putin pointed out that Russia is "stopping" those who "seek to rule the world, threaten to divide and enslave Russia." If territorial integrity is threatened, Russia will "use all available means" to defend itself.
"using all available means" to defend itself may imply the risk of a small-scale nuclear war .
In the future, it can be foreseen that the struggle between Russia and Ukraine and the West will be more intense. Putin's mobilization is to prepare for the escalation of conflict and the long-term transformation of conflict. Ukraine also showed confidence in the other side of the conflict. Ukrainian President Zelensky announced a few days ago that he had successfully regained more than 8,000 square kilometers of territory.
As the big rear of Ukraine, the US Department of Defense announced on August 24 that the United States will provide Ukraine with additional security assistance worth US$2.98 billion, US Secretary of State Blinken issued a statement on September 15 local time saying that the United States will provide Ukraine with another US$600 million in military assistance. The United States has provided Ukraine with a total of approximately $15.8 billion in military aid.
Of course, among a series of aid to Ukraine, there is also Europe.
This shows that all parties are still increasing their investment, and the characteristics of "long-term" are becoming more and more obvious. All parties will start a protracted "war of attrition".
Russia and Ukraine have begun a protracted military war, which is likely to bring about a food crisis for countries around the world that rely on food imports.
Ukraine's black soil area accounts for 40% of the total black soil area in the world, and Ukraine's agricultural land reaches 42.56 million hectares, accounting for 70% of the country's land area. It is a veritable "European Granary". Its exports corn and barley account for more than 15% of the world's world, and sunflower seeds account for 28.6% of the world's food exports.
Russian wheat exports account for 21.99% of the world.
40% of the world's countries rely on Russia and Ukraine's food to live, while 30% of the world's countries rely on Russia's oil, natural gas and fertilizers to produce and live. Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs Kachika once said that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will affect about 25% of the world's food trade, including a decrease in food supply, especially wheat, and rising food prices. If Russia and Ukraine continue to fight protracted military affairs, it will bring major problems to food production and transportation.
In the long run, it will affect the production of wheat, corn, and oil crops, and will have an impact on the supply of major agricultural products in the future period. This may be the second inevitable "gray rhino" in the world in the second half of this year.
Global food production cuts combined with rising grain prices, weakening consumption and financial impact caused by violent interest rate hikes in the United States, and how the two major "gray rhinos" can be effectively alleviated, it seems that there is no effective answer yet. The "Black Friday" brought about by the sharp decline in US stocks and commodities and the start of some Russian recruitment mobilization have kicked off the official arrival of the two major "gray rhinos".
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