Let’s talk about it today, and now it is mainly affected by those factors.
The market has been affected by two factors, these factors are the US dollar interest rate hike and inflation. In fact, there is only one ultimate factor for these two factors, which is inflation. Because of inflation, in order to curb inflation, The Federal Reserve has continued to raise interest rates, causing changes in the entire macro environment. Of course, the emergence of inflation has led to a decline in corporate costs and then led to difficulties in subdividing industries.
In this way, the entire international macro market affects the market through these two factors. The situation may be in a better direction now, , and this factor is that the inflation in the United States may decline for two consecutive months .
And this is also the reason why the US dollar fell during the holidays and US stocks began to rise, because if inflation slowly disappears, the Fed will no longer aggressively raise interest rates. If interest rates are not aggressively raised, then the market instability factor will be eliminated. Similarly, the cost pressure of enterprises may also be reduced because inflation weakens, which is why there may be a turning point.
Before, we also talked about this issue. Assuming that the US dollar continues to raise interest rates aggressively, some countries may really not be able to withstand it. At that time, there will be a real crisis.
Tonight the United States announced CPI. A few days ago, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the decline in gasoline prices will put downward pressure on the US CPI in August, and also triggered a continuous rebound in US stocks.
From this point of view, we have also verified that as long as inflation gradually weakens, the market will have expectations of a rebound. Especially when the Federal Reserve regards inflation as the primary goal of monetary policy, everything in monetary policy is related to inflation. Therefore, only when inflation is eliminated can everything be changed.
Due to the decline in gasoline, used cars and hotel prices, one expectation is that inflation may begin to peak, that is, CPI will decline for the second consecutive month.
What is the future? The release of CPI data has been called the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest rate negotiations. Let's wait and see, the result may have a greater impact.
Why does A shares not rebound much?
Inflation is a factor in the world. Although the US dollar rate hike has had a certain impact on the market, after all, because the US dollar has not reached a super crazy level, the impact of inflation on A-shares is still within the conventional range.
However, some other factors are affecting A-shares, such as real estate problems, and various reasons, resulting in tight finances in various places, and companies face performance pressure due to economic downturn.
In fact, the reason why China has told development in recent years, especially real estate companies, is of course other companies are no exception. It is high leverage. This is one of the reasons for the rapid development of GDP.
However, there is a problem with high leverage. Once the economy slows down, corporate profits will decline, and companies are overloaded because leverage high. This is the biggest problem facing the market at present .
At this time, the same is true for why stocks do not rise. If it really rises, companies will reduce their holdings to alleviate financial pressure, or are reducing pressure in this way.
is like Fosun recently. Everyone who trades stocks knows that if there is no capital in, the market will not rise, and what about some people reducing their holdings?
That may still be difficult in the short term.
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