The problem that exists in the current market is that the directions with relatively strong fundamentals have basically risen, while the directions at the bottom have relatively weak fundamentals, the prosperity is not very good, and the overall market opportunities are relativel

The index adjusted slightly on Friday. Growth stocks fell back relatively sharply, and the market's profit-making effect was not good. The problem in the current market of

is that the directions with relatively strong fundamentals have basically gone up, and the directions that are at the bottom have relatively weak fundamentals, and the prosperity is not very good. There are not many opportunities in the market as a whole.

I feel that in the future, the market rhythm will still be dominated by thematic investment.

……

There are two things that were discussed more over the weekend. One is the social financing data in July, and the other is the choice of five central enterprises to voluntarily delist from US stocks.

Let’s first talk about the social financing data in July. From the data alone, it is indeed lower than expected.

html New RMB loans in July were 679 billion yuan, compared with market expectations of 1.150 billion yuan. The scale of social financing was 756.1 billion yuan, and the market expected 1.388 billion yuan.

The following two charts are relatively intuitive. The four types of lines on the

chart are the trends in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. The red dot is 2022. July is the lowest value this year and the lowest value in the past four years.

Let’s take a look at the specific distribution of social integration components:

Through this chart, we can see that among the three parts of social integration, only the government’s financing growth rate has increased since this year, while enterprises have almost no changes. Residents’ society Financing levels have continued to decline since the end of 2020.

The decrease in residents is mainly due to the decrease in mortgage loans. The real estate industry has also been in recession in the past two years. People’s willingness to buy houses is generally not strong. Coupled with the recurrence of the epidemic, everyone’s risk preference has been reduced. Everyone is unwilling to take risks and take the initiative. Choose to lower leverage .

The epidemic has really affected a lot. For example, the recent epidemic in Yiwu has had a huge impact on small-scale commercial practitioners such as Qingkou Night Market. Don't underestimate this night market. The average annual rent for a stall about 2 meters high is 70,000 to 80,000 yuan, and the highest one can reach 200,000 yuan a year.

When there was no epidemic, it would be no problem to make a net profit of one or two thousand yuan a night. Now that the epidemic has come, the income will be gone. If you have a high debt ratio, you need to pay for your mortgage loan, car loan, etc. If you have children following behind you, you may want to bite your "heel", and your life will not be so peaceful.

At this time, actively reducing one's own leverage is an act of self-protection.

...

Let’s talk about five central enterprises that have voluntarily delisted from the US stock market, namely China Life , PetroChina , Chalco , Sinopec , Shanghai Petrochemical .

Let me first explain that the US stocks delisted this time are, to be precise, ADS (depository shares). These five central enterprises were initially listed in Hong Kong and issued some H shares, and then based on these H shares, they issued ADSs in the United States.

ADS is actually relatively useless. It is equivalent to exchange coupon . How many ADSs can be exchanged for how many Hong Kong stocks , but there is a handling fee. Buying ADS is not as good as buying Hong Kong stocks directly, or buying A shares through Hong Kong Stock Connect .

Whether in terms of trading volume or financing volume, the US stocks of these five central enterprises account for a very low proportion of the company, and they will basically not be able to raise money in the future.

In addition, there is an almost irreconcilable issue, which is that the United States requires companies listed in the United States to hand over audit drafts of original data. The audit manuscripts of central enterprises must contain confidential information. How can they be handed over to you the US Securities Regulatory Commission for review?

is of no use in the first place. Not only is it free of charge, but it also has restrictions on the left and inaccuracies on the right. It’s okay not to do this kind of loss-making business.

That’s all, I am Shi’an!