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Oil prices are about to rise. According to the crude oil market, as of press time, the price of U.S. WTI light crude oil remained at $80.53/barrel, an increase of $2.13, or 2.717%; Brent crude oil price was $85.99/barrel, an increase of $2.53, or 3.03%! Affected by the increase in crude oil prices, , this round of oil price adjustment entered the last working day on January 3. The rate of change of crude oil has maintained a volatile and strong trend, and the price increase of gasoline and diesel is expected to increase. It is expected that the price of domestic No. 92 gasoline will rise by about 0.2~0.24 yuan/L. Car owners are reminded to refuel in advance!
Now, the New Year's Day holiday has come to an end, and the Spring Festival is approaching. In the domestic mainstream agricultural product market, the prices of pigs, eggs, aquatic products, and mutton sheep have recently fluctuated within a narrow range. The market has generally shown a weak trend. During the New Year's Day and Spring Festival, the domestic consumer market gradually rebounded. What impact will it have on the market? Today we will analyze it in detail!
1. The price of pigs has changed!
Pig prices stopped falling and rose yesterday. Although the market is showing an upward trend, due to limited consumption support, the pressure on the breeding end to sell has increased sharply, and pig prices are at risk of "rising and falling"! Sure enough, according to agency data, on January 3, the price of pigs "changed", and the market showed a downward trend. The average price of three-yuan pigs across the country fell to 16.16 yuan/kg, and the price of pigs fell by 0.32 yuan/kg. The price of pigs fluctuated downwards. In the north and south of the country, pig prices generally fell, and the decline in and in the north was even more prominent!
At present, in the domestic market, the price of pigs in Northeastern region has generally fallen to 15.25~15.5 yuan/kg, and in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, the price of pigs has dropped to 15.4~15.75 yuan/kg.In some high-price areas, the price of landmark pigs in Sichuan and Chongqing is currently trading sideways at 416.3~16.4 yuan/kg. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the average price of landmark pigs has dropped to 16.45~17.2 yuan/kg!
Pig prices are fluctuating and falling. I personally believe that the root cause is that the balance of the market supply and demand game is gradually tilting!
On the one hand, the consumer market has not been able to follow up well. After the New Year's Day holiday, the popularity of home consumption has further declined, while the catering market has been bleak again after a short-term recovery. Due to the high mood of residents to reduce travel, the consumption follow-up performance is still poor. In particular, the pickled meat boom in the southern region has ended, In the northern region, pig consumption has not yet started, market demand is not smooth, leftovers in many wholesale markets have increased, and the price of white-striped pigs has dropped significantly!
On the other hand, the pressure on the supply of live pigs has increased sharply. The pig slaughter cycle this month is relatively short, and the market-weighted pig supply is relatively loose. On top of that, retail investors pig farms have loosened their sentiments to suppress the slaughter, and the price of large pigs has fallen. There are still nearly 30% of large pigs in stock for secondary fattening. After the New Year's Day holiday, the pace of group pig companies' sales has gradually accelerated, and market panic has increased!
Therefore, based on the long-short game in the market, the downward pressure on pig prices has increased sharply, the breeding side has lacked confidence, the risk of slaughter has increased significantly, and there is a risk of further decline in pig prices. I personally believe that this round of downward pig prices, the average price of live pigs may bottom out at 15~15.5 yuan/kg!
2. Egg prices stop rising!
Recently, with the production and sales market, the average price of eggs has successively dropped to 4.2~4.3 yuan/jin, and the enthusiasm of downstream shipments has gradually improved. Especially due to the demand for New Year's Day holiday and the sharp increase in replenishment demand from food factories, downstream egg shipments have accelerated, supporting the shock and strength of egg prices in stages!
However, due to the gradual improvement of egg production capacity , the progress of phasing out old chickens on the breeding side has been slow recently, the number of domestic multi-layer laying hens has passively increased, the scale of new laying hens this month has further improved, and egg production capacity has gradually increased. In the consumer market, with the centralized replenishment of terminals, the market performance is average, the downstream market inventory consumption demand cycle, traders are becoming more cautious, and domestic egg prices have gradually stabilized!
According to agency data analysis, currently, in the domestic production and sales market, the average egg price remains at around 9.15 yuan/jin, and egg prices have stabilized sideways. From the perspective of regional markets, in Beijing, the average egg arrival price has stabilized, with the mainstream reference price remaining at 208 yuan/44 pounds, and the average egg arrival price at the Great Ocean Road Wholesale Market has remained at 208~210 yuan/44 pounds! In the Shanghai market, the average price of brown shell eggs in the Pudong area has stabilized at 4.73 yuan/jin. In Shandong, the retail price of brown-shell eggs in some areas of Heze remained at 4.67 yuan/jin, and in Jining , the mainstream price of eggs was 4.53 yuan/jin.In Henan, egg prices have generally stabilized at 4.5 to 4.8 yuan/jin!
At present, in the domestic production and sales market, egg prices are showing a sideways and volatile trend. On the one hand, post-holiday consumer demand has gradually weakened, and market stocking needs have declined, while urban supermarkets and rural markets , affected by the factors of residents turning positive, the movement of people is restricted, the consumption of catering and dine-in is not high, and the demand performance has dropped; on the other hand, the production and sales inventory has gradually decreased, and the inventory pressure on the breeding end is weak. Due to the high breeding cost and the high domestic feed level, farmers are still reluctant to sell! Therefore, under the long-short game, egg prices have shown a sideways stabilization performance. However, in the short term, due to the gradual improvement of egg stocks, prices are still under pressure to be weak!
3. Fish and sheep prices are worrying!
New Year’s Day and Spring Festival holidays are the peak period for domestic consumption. However, affected by the mask issue, consumption has not been followed smoothly, the catering industry has been depressed, the market demand for beef, mutton and aquatic products has deviated, and domestic fish and sheep prices have fluctuated downwards!
In the aquatic product market, the price trend of domestic freshwater fish has been weak recently. Although, due to the rebound in demand in some regions, the price of grass carp has increased to a certain extent. However, due to the recent rebound in demand in some regions, the price of grass carp , residents are turning to positive conditions, their mood is deviating when dining out, and they focus on recuperating at home. The wholesale market of aquatic products is not smooth, and the phenomenon of detention in some production areas is increasing. Superimposed, the centralized pickling cycle in the south is over, residents’ mood for pickled fish has weakened, the overall market demand is sluggish, and domestic mainstream fish prices have fluctuated downwards!
Among them, the prices of common grass carp, carp , crucian carp and tilapia showed an overall downward trend, Raw fish , yellow catfish, shrimp, California seabass , etc. also showed a weak trend. Among them, the average price of grass carp was 5.7 yuan/jin, the average price of crucian carp was 7.4 yuan/jin, a decrease of 7.7%, and the average price of carp was 4.5 yuan/jin, a year-on-year decrease of more than 26%! In the special water category, the average price of shrimp at the pond entrance is 22.4 yuan/jin, a month-on-month decrease of more than 10%, and the average pond price of raw fish is 7 yuan/jin, a year-on-year decrease of 30%...
In the fattening sheep market, domestic mutton prices have been relatively stable recently. The price of bone-in mutton is maintained at 38~40 yuan/jin, and the price of bone-in mutton is around 32~33 yuan/jin. The price of mutton has maintained a high and fluctuating trend. However, since the beginning of winter this year, due to the recession in the catering industry, the sales of mutton have been slow, and home consumption has not been very popular. Due to the high sideways price of mutton, the purchasing power level of residents has declined, and the overall consumer demand has deviated, which has also caused the price of fattening sheep to continue to fall!
At present, in the domestic mainstream production areas, such as Yanwo in Shandong and Tangxian in Hebei, the actual selling price of some mutton sheep has dropped to 11.5 to 13 yuan/jin. In many places in the north and south of the country, the transaction price of mainstream mutton sheep is also hovering around 13 to 15 yuan/jin. The market for fattening sheep is relatively bleak, which also limits the enthusiasm of farmers to replenish the flock. In particular, the cost of feed is high this year, and there is a certain pressure on the breeding end to lose money!
As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the consumer market is gradually recovering. However, I personally believe that since the catering industry is unlikely to rebound in a retaliatory manner, it is expected that domestic aquatic products and mutton prices will continue to fluctuate sideways. As for the live pig and egg markets, prices are still expected to fall. Especially in the live pig market, there is a risk that pig prices will fall below the fattening cost line again, and there will be pressure from pigs to be slaughtered! However, as for the market pork price, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream traders are in a higher mood to reduce volume and raise prices. It is expected that pork prices will be weak to follow the decline!
Oil prices increase! On January 3, the price of pigs "changed", the price of eggs stopped rising, and the prices of fish and sheep were worrying! What do you think of this? The above is the author’s personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!
