Market Review:
US CPI growth slowed down in November, and last night US stocks rebounded; today A shares opened high and closed low, continuing to maintain its unique style. Then it fluctuated throughout the day, with a trading volume of 810.9 billion yuan, and funds continued to maintain a net outflow, fleeing 29 billion yuan throughout the day. Now the market stock is getting smaller and smaller. If it weren’t for the large-scale adjustment of positions and stock exchanges every day to rotate, and if it were the normal trading methods of the market in the past, it would be estimated that the trading volume at this stage would not exceed 600 billion, so the phenomenon of false prosperity is very prominent. There is no way, this is probably the case in December, especially since some sectors strengthened at the end of November this year, giving large funds a good opportunity to leave at high levels, so many funds left the market in advance and waited for settlement; in order to maintain net value, some public institutions also cashed in chips and held coins. In addition, there are 14 new stocks to subscribe to this week, and the IPO is still accelerating secretly.
talk back to the market; today the market interprets the logic of the decline of medicine and the resurgence of funds. Therefore, 8 of the top 10 sectors in growth are the post-epidemic recovery sectors, travel and consumption. All funds are focused here, so it is natural that other sectors can't perform, and the remaining semiconductor and energy sectors have rebounded slightly; semiconductors were rumored to have trillion-dollar subsidies last night. Although the rumors were denied, funds continued to hype today, but they were severely differentiated. The energy sector is mainly due to the escalation of the European energy crisis.
From the perspective of capital, although the sector is still rotating (semiconductors independently opened high and closed low in the morning, and the pharmaceutical industry has receded sharply, and the decline list is full of pharmaceutical popular stocks; then in the morning, the travel concept rebounded in the rotation, tourism and hotels strengthened, and in the afternoon, the large consumption cycle strengthened, liquor, food and beverage, and cosmetics), the overall rebound intensity is weakening, and the strong sectors are only one of the stocks were grouped to the daily limit , and other increases are average. The main thing we are talking about is that the funds have gone, and the remaining stock has been a little exhausted and not enough. As for when funds will return, it mainly depends on the re-entry after the institution settles; each company has a different settlement time period. There are also many funds that avoid the settlement of institutions and leave simultaneously; the other way is to see if there is any funds entering the market early tomorrow after the announcement of the Federal Reserve rate hike tonight. So tomorrow we should pay more attention to the situation of the sector; if the index ushers in a large-scale rebound tomorrow, then the sector that resonates with the index, or leads the index rebound, should focus on the later stage; it should be the sector that reverts back to funds, and it may be the main line of the sector rebound in the later stage.
After-sales news, important departments released the "Strategic Planning Outline for Expanding Domestic Demand". The whole text did not talk about the direction, it was all big talk, it depends on how local policies responded in the later stage. Literally, it is currently beneficial to the concept of large consumption and unified large market. If I have my personal opinion, I will say the same thing. If I have money, who will not be able to consume? The stock market task is used to raise for . Now we are consuming us, so we can still spend some savings.
sector review:
big consumption; the post-epidemic recovery is the sector that is emphasized this week; at present, continuity is the best sector after the medical ebb, so it is worth continuing to pay attention to, at least has no problem with short-term . Although the market is rotating, there is no strange money loss effect every time this direction is not rotated. It is more just standing still, so has a risk preference for . The biggest impact of the epidemic is travel, then diet, and then consumption; but the concept of travel has been repeatedly hyped many times this year, so it is not recommended for ordinary investors to chase highs when traveling and hotels. However, as short-term players, many individual stocks are still following the 5 daily line , and the sector has not accelerated yet, so you can buy low near the five-day line to go to the acceleration stage of the game. At present, pay attention to Xi'an diet and Xi'an tourism. You can also dig here, but after the big rise today, you need to wait for differences. Don’t chase highs at this time. We are more optimistic about the opportunity to make up for the rise at a low level; liquor, food and beverage, retail, duty-free, etc. White wine weather vane Hainan Coconut Island ; food and beverage weather vane black sesame .In fact, the sector is still in the stage of gathering popularity, so we can lurk more and wait for the popularity consensus. In addition, the funds on the market are limited now, so it is basically just a few stocks in the sector that are grouped together, so it is best to pay attention to popular and active stocks. Panda Dairy, Pinwo Food, Haixin Food , Hairong Technology, Yangguan Dairy, etc. Here, Kuaijishan, , Shuijingfang, , Jinhui wine, etc., will wait for the low-price opportunities near the five-day line.
Pharmaceutical; on December 1, we talked about the day when Guangzhou relaxed the implementation of the logic of "full relaxation". In addition to the logic of household backup drugs, pharmacies, and antigen testing after the implementation of the full release, other medicines must be fulfilled. At that time, , Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical began to decline. Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical was the overall leader in the entire medicine at that time, so this decline was also a manifestation of the realization of universal medicine and medical care. Finally, the backup medicine continued to be hyped, mainly focusing on Chinese medicine cold granules, antipyretic drugs, berefen, lotus and clear vermildew. This Sunday we said that these spare medicines are in the end. Although it was strong again on Monday, it also became a graduation photo. Apart from the front row, many of them began to fade away on Tuesday. Until today, more stocks have opened low and closed low. Today, Xinhua Pharmaceutical Although hit the daily limit again in the late trading session, he is the leader after all, and he still has to cover up the funds to escape. Yiling Pharmaceutical represents the battlefield of big funds, and this trend is expected to reach its peak. The speculation on backup drugs has been implemented, but the sector's funds have been deeply involved. Some people also have differences on this logic and will continue to be optimistic about the sector, so the pharmaceutical industry will not be able to recede directly. It will be more like the ball landing in the later stage. During the pullback, , it occasionally rebounded, but the strength will become weaker and weaker. Unless there are new expectations or new concepts. After all, it has not reached the peak of sheep, so we cannot completely deny the concept of backup medicine now. (The hype of this wave of speculation is that the spare medicine is being purchased at a large scale, resulting in out of stock; but as the company expands capacity and expands production, it should not be out of stock soon, so the logic is afraid of implementation).
semiconductor; at the end of yesterday, there were already funds grabbing the chips of semiconductor ; then after the closing, rumored that the subsidy of 1 trillion yuan was subsidy, and the semiconductor on the Hong Kong stock rose sharply. Last night, the rumors were refuted. Today, the Hong Kong stock semiconductors fell back, but the A-share semiconductors went differentiated, and the front rows continued to hit the daily limit. The main reason was that some funds chose rotation carriers under the decline of the pharmaceutical industry, so even if the rumors were refuted, the funds would still be speculated. Now semiconductors are locked down firmly, so there will definitely be policy support in the future. Let’s take a look at the subsequent semiconductors when they are low. Today, the core hype is chiplets and equipment. In the future, we will pay attention to the active stocks today. Next time we speculate, we can follow the trend. The market funds are limited. If we speculate again, we will definitely find these popular stocks to join us.
industrial master machine; it is a linkage relationship with semiconductors, and they are all branches of domestic substitution; we say this sector has also been rising day by day recently, so if you want to buy low, wait for a pullback, East China CNC , Central China CNC .
new energy; the core is energy storage, battery storage, photovoltaic new technologies, and no other old technologies can be seen. But these branches are also falling all the way, and many of them have broken the level today. The main reason is that there is not enough funds, and they are all going to the epidemic line and cannot speculate; some medium and long-term funds may also avoid this siphon. But things will turn back when extremes, so there is no need to be bearish at this position. Even if funds flow back in the later stage, most of these funds will still be mainly medium-term. If they only speculate in the short term, they will not leave the market early and will also carry out rotation in the post-epidemic recovery. So once they return, they will not be able to help others argue with the concept of post-epidemic recovery, nor will they do short-term stocks. So once they return, it should still depend on growth. In addition, tonight, charging piles are talking about tonight. It is currently the most prosperous industry in new infrastructure. Pay attention to Shenghong Co., Ltd. and Kosda . In terms of energy storage, we still focus on selling high and buying low.
Logistics; recent institutional research has been fermenting, and tonight's expansion of domestic demand is conducive to the unified market concept, so you can also pay attention.
The market is essentially mainly short-term.Real estate and Chinese characters are in decline, and now the pharmaceutical industry is in decline. Next, the epidemic will recover after the hype. After the tide is in decline, it should be a new direction; look at this week's economic meeting; or if the market rebounds tomorrow, it depends on whether it can increase volume and find a new direction of resonance.
official account: Fengchen Investment Research
Operation Small TIP: Short-term operation of the five-day line is the watershed between the strength and weakness of individual stocks, unless it is an active stock for a row; otherwise, if it falls below the five-day line, please pay attention to reducing positions or short-term stop-win stop loss . The 20-day line of individual stocks is the lifeline of individual stocks. The 80% probability of falling below the 20-day line is usually correct; stock trading often talks about probability theory, don’t use low-probability things to play. No matter how good the logic is, you have to combine the rise and fall trend of market and the rise and fall rules of individual stocks to choose the opportunity to intervene and exit. You cannot just chase high prices. Disclaimer: The content and views of this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. All individual stocks involved in the article are merely a compilation of ideas and are not used as the basis for individual stock trading. If you operate accordingly, the consequences of this will be borne by yourself; the stock market is risky, so be cautious when entering the market.
