This article is Xiaoyu Ge’s personal investment in fund diary and thoughts. The mentioned in the article may have the risk of halving. All content does not constitute investment advice. Please think independently of thinking . Do not make buying or selling decisions based on my content. at your own risk .
1. I fell down again
Today, the three major indexes are rising, and the old rival Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has risen by 1%, but I am still falling, you dare to believe it? I was left behind again, and I couldn't accept it.
New energy performance this week is too slow, and liquor has risen for 5 consecutive days. Do you dare to believe it? Now many people are urging me to cut new energy and pursue liquor, which I think is inappropriate.
Consumption recovery is a must-have consumption first, mainly liquor. Then there is optional consumption, mainly car. Liquor has been rising for a while. Now, it is easy to get beaten on both ends because of the new energy chasing liquor. I can’t make the mistake of blue chip again. I won't chase the rise and sell the fall.
. New energy vehicle wholesale sales hit a new high
According to data from the China Passenger Association,
According to the data of the China Passenger Association, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars in November reached 598,000, increased by 58.2% year-on-year, and increased by 7.8% month-on-month.
htmlIn November, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars reached 728,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 70.2% and a month-on-month increase of 7.9%.
htmlRetail sales of new energy vehicles in October fell month-on-month, many people were worried that sales in November would be worse. I predicted that November was the peak sales season on the one hand, and on the other hand, it was the reason for new energy subsidies. Sales in November were expected to hit a new high.
At present, retail sales in November were close to 600,000 units, and wholesale sales were 728,000 units, setting a record high. I think sales in November exceeded expectations.
3. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles hits a new high
November domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 36.3%, an increase of 15 percentage points from the penetration rate of 20.8% in November 2021.
htmlThe wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers in November was 35.9%, an increase of 16 percentage points from the penetration rate of 19.9% in November 2021.
htmlRetail and wholesale penetration rates of new energy vehicles reached around 36% in November, setting a record high. The penetration rate last month was still around 30%, and it is expected that the annual penetration rate will reach around 28% in 2022.
The penetration rate next year may reach more than 36%, which is getting closer to my initial goal of taking profit to reach 40%-60%.
. Analysis of new energy vehicle sales in December:
Next, the Spring Festival is approaching, and the demand for car purchases during the New Year will be reflected in December, because the new energy vehicle subsidy policy is about to end, which will greatly stimulate the car purchasers to place orders in December.
htmlRetail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue to hit new highs in November.
5. Zero growth next year?
This year, under the influence of the epidemic, the new energy retail sales reached 5.03 million vehicles from January to November, an increase of 100.1% year-on-year. Even if there is no subsidy for new energy vehicles next year, I think sales will continue to grow.
Passenger Car Association analysis stated:
If you consider it in accordance with no policy support, it is expected that the overall retail sales of passenger cars will be zero growth of 20.6 million in 2023.
predicts that new energy wholesale sales will reach 8.4 million vehicles in 2023, an increase of 30%.
The zero growth mentioned here is the entire domestic passenger car market, not new energy vehicles. New energy vehicles are expected to continue to grow by 30% next year.
6. New energy vehicles' profit forecast for next year
Institutional forecast that CSI New Energy Vehicle's net profit attributable to shareholders in 2023 increased by 36.45% year-on-year. I think this data is reasonable.
If the growth rate of the entire new energy vehicle next year reaches 30%, then the selected 50 new energy vehicle industrial chain companies have a growth rate of 36%. I think there is no problem.
Next year, the PEG valuation of new energy vehicles is 0.21, which is also underestimated.For growth stocks less than 1, it means undervalued, and greater than 1, it means overvalued. I think new energy vehicles are significantly undervalued and have a high fixed investment cost-effectiveness.
My real disk: ZFB Search Brother Xiaoyu to view the home page. The real disk is automatically bound and cannot be faked. All positions and real disk can be seen.
...
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.3% to close at 3206 points. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose 0.98%, the ChiNext rose 0.37%, and the net outflow of northbound funds was 271 million yuan, with a total turnover of 1 trillion yuan in the two markets.
is expected to be -0.2% today, and it has been around -15.4% this year after the update. The old rival Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is +0.99% today, and -19.07% this year after the update. I was almost caught up by my old opponent, I couldn't accept it.
(The above funds only do fund research and do not make any investment advice)
did not operate today, so continue to remain lying down. Excellent people will like it after reading the article. I wish the valuation of friends who like it will increase greatly!
