Xu Wenhui
Since 2022, internal and external uncertainties have arisen, stock market volatility has increased, and market overall fluctuates and adjusts.
From the perspective of monthly performance, as of the end of October, the index level adjustment has been for 6 months. From the perspective of style characteristics, from April to June, benefiting from the boost of economic expectations, the consumption style showed a phased rebound, and the remaining stages led by growth and cycle alternating, with small and medium-sized stock styles taking the lead.
Multiple scattered epidemics in autumn and winter restricted the efforts and effectiveness of a series of countercyclical policies, and some listed companies were under pressure for profits. From the perspective of valuation, after the market has adjusted in the early stage, the risk-return ratio has entered a suitable range, and the attractiveness of equity allocation has increased.
htmlIn October, the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was held. The Twenty Top Reports continue to emphasize the main line of 's high-quality development of , and propose to achieve Chinese-style modernization, emphasizing the goals of innovation-driven , improving people's livelihood, promoting green development of , and improving the national security system. It has a positive effect on boosting internal market confidence and clarifying the medium- and long-term development direction, and the corresponding areas are expected to continue to receive high attention from the market.Looking forward to the future, we should make plans with a more optimistic and positive attitude at present. Judging from the dimensions of stock and bond cost-effectiveness, historical sequence valuation, etc., the market has entered the historical bottom area.
Considering that high-frequency economic data is still weak, it is still mainly focused on finding structural opportunities in the short term. Against the backdrop of the rapid recovery of risk appetite , short-term theme investment style is expected to rise again. At the end of the year, we should pay attention to the statements and guidance of the Politburo and important meetings such as the Central Economic Work and other important meetings on future economic growth and supporting policies in the direction of industries.
The major consumer field has always been a track that nurtures long-distance running players. After a year and a half of twists and turns, some leading companies in the track have gradually accumulated advantages, their share has increased against the trend, and gained a longer-term competitive advantage; at the same time, many companies in high-quality tracks have also returned to their best position in the past three years. Looking at the year-on-year dimension, fundamentals have the possibility of trend repair and exceeding expectations.
Investment Strategy on , maintain determination, continue to explore new bottom-level products that meet the long-term goals of Chinese-style modernization, and focus on market response in the short term.
For future investment layout, we will continue to focus on structure and neglect indexes, and from bottom to top stock selection , and follow the changes in the prosperity , recovery certainty, valuation expansion, and investment layout around high-quality growth and dilemma reversal .
(The author is the deputy general manager and fund manager of the RBC Research Department) (CIS)
