China Fund News reporter Ren Ziqing
boosted by many positive factors, A shares continue to rebound. Many private equity investors interviewed said that recently, internal and external factors that suppress stock market sentiment and economic expectations have shown relatively positive changes, and the market outlook has become increasingly optimistic. In terms of specific investment directions, we will focus on investment opportunities such as consumption and military industry to stabilize growth and difficulties in reversal of .
positive signals are increasing
Market sentiment is expected to continue to recover
Recently, A-shares have seen a certain rebound. Xingshi Investment believes that the optimization and implementation of epidemic prevention and control measures and the support policies on the supply side of the real estate have greatly alleviated the market's concerns about the continued sluggish domestic economy; The most tense time for the Federal Reserve's tightening expectations has passed. Improved economic expectations will drive stock market sentiment to improve, and all major sectors have opportunities for valuations to rise.
Lianhai Asset Partner and Investment Director Zhou Qing analyzed that the rebound was caused by the resonance of multiple factors: First, the macro situation has stabilized, the Federal Reserve's radical interest rate hike is expected to decline, and international tensions tend to ease; domestically, the policy expectations for stable growth of are gradually warming up. "This rebound is expected to continue in the short term, but the durability of the upward trend still requires continuous verification of the environment in all aspects." Yu Dingheng, chairman and investment director of Yihu Investment, interpreted the current market as "bottom of the tunnel" - the darkness in front of him, and there is no way out as if he is in a tunnel. However, one of the most important characteristics of the tunnel is "light at the end". With the release of active policies such as real estate, I believe that the turning point of the policy is not far away.
Xiang Lin, research director of Ruiyi Investment, also has a relatively optimistic attitude towards the market. Xiong Lin said that judging from the changes in the domestic macro policy , the country has introduced a series of policies in both real estate and epidemic prevention policies. The two core factors that previously restricted the development of economic have been alleviated, and the probability of macroeconomic recovery will gradually increase next year; second, the United States' CPI declined more than expected in October, employment data began to decline, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike will gradually slow down, reducing the valuation pressure of global equity assets ; third, the domestic A-shares and Hong Kong stock markets have continued to adjust since the beginning of 2021. After continuous and significant adjustments, the market valuation has reached a historical lowest level, with a sufficient security margin.
"Many private equity firms believe that the market's positive signals are increasing. The current market is in the bottom range, and the return risks are relatively high. Some private equity managers believe that the signal on the right has been shown." Cui Bo, product director of Geshang Fuxin, also told reporters. Fan Yu, a researcher at the Haomai Fund Research Center, revealed that many private equity firms currently believe that capital market has entered the bottom area and has long-term investment value. Many key variables that affect the market this year, such as the epidemic, exchange rate , overseas inflation, etc., will reverse or ease next year.
optimistic about the future market
actively grasps the direction of policy benefits and other directions
specifically chooses investment directions. Mingshi Partner Fund stated that it will actively grasp the main policy line and focus on the directions related to stable growth and sectors that may be subject to policy in the future. Specifically, on the one hand, the macro-sector-related investment opportunities brought about by the further optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies, such as medicine, consumption, tourism, real estate, infrastructure, etc.; on the other hand, the directions that benefit from the introduction of a new round of potential policies, such as new energy vehicles, medical care, infrastructure, independent and controllable , national security, etc.
Xingshi Investment believes that in the context of strengthening domestic demand and weakening external demand, domestic demand-driven sectors with room for reversal of difficulties may have good opportunities. Next year, the upward trend and elasticity of fundamentals in these fields may be clearer, such as aviation tourism, medicine, logistics, media and Internet.
Yu Dingheng said that the current allocation direction is still focusing on the industrial trend itself and the new development direction, embracing certainty in uncertainty, and controlling the tail risks of bear market as the main idea. Specifically, it includes the following points: First, the security sector, such as national security military industry, scientific and technological security information innovation, independent scientific and technological innovation, and innovative drugs for life safety.The second is new infrastructure , including intelligent networking, high-end equipment, energy storage, etc. that solve Chinese modernization and chokes. The third is the reversal of difficulties, mainly focusing on epidemic prevention and control and policy correction, and the low-lying consumption, policy recovery-driven Internet, etc.
According to Liu Youhua, deputy director of the Wealth Research Department of Paipai.com, overall, private equity is optimistic about the market in the future, and it is expected that the market may be composed of valuation-driven and performance-driven. Therefore, on the one hand, we are optimistic about the high prosperity track represented by new energy; on the other hand, we are optimistic about industries with recovery in performance in the post-epidemic era, especially consumption and other sectors, which are expected to usher in valuation recovery.
Xiong Lin also said that in terms of investment layout, the overall equity allocation ratio has been increased recently, and the positions of positions in have been increased, which has increased the pro-cyclical sectors and Hong Kong stocks that have benefited from the economic recovery.
Zhou Qing told reporters that next year, in terms of major asset allocation, we will be relatively cautious about the bond market. Equity assets are relatively optimistic about Hong Kong stocks, A-share , stock , and are relatively bearish about the European market; in terms of the A-share sector, they are relatively optimistic about industries related to stable growth and recovery, such as finance, downstream consumption, TMT, etc.
