In the current environment, we are facing many difficulties, monetary tightening, epidemics and geopolitical crises frequently occur, the global economic growth rate declined significantly in 2022, and there is no longer the prosperity of the past few years. All walks of life have certain pressure. As 2022 is about to pass, many people are still looking forward to a new scene in 2023, but the author wants to remind everyone here, because the current situation is really not optimistic, and a global recession in 2023 may come. , We can understand the actual situation, first look at several sets of data:
The first set of data is export data. In the past two days, South Korea has released export data, and the data shows that South Korea has plummeted by 16.7%. As we all know, South Korea's exports have always been at the top of the world. If South Korea's export data has declined sharply, it means that a global economic recession has arrived.
In addition to the decline in South Korea's export data, the export data of Europe and the United States has also declined. Even our country's export data to Europe and the United States fell by 10% last month, which shows that a global economic recession in 2023 is inevitable.
The second set of data is about our domestic unemployment rate. Our domestic economic growth rate is in the leading position in the world. Even in this difficult 2022, this year, our domestic unemployment rate has hit a new high in recent decades. The overall domestic unemployment rate has reached 5.4%, and the unemployment rate for aged 16-24 this year is 17%, of which the unemployment rate for undergraduate graduation is about 23%-24%.
The third set of data is about our domestic house sales. In many places around the world, houses are the pillars of the economy, and the sales of houses can better reflect the good and bad of a local economy. However, this year, our domestic house sales have declined sharply, with sales of more than 100 real estate companies falling by 42.1% year-on-year compared with last year. The above three sets of data are enough to show that the situation is relatively bad now, and the author is not optimistic about the expectations for 2023, because various external measures have shown that according to the latest news, the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate will reach 6% next year, and it is only 4%, which means that there will be some increase this year. This will make the US dollar stronger, the RMB will further depreciate, and the economy will enter countercyclical adjustment.
It can be seen that we cannot be too optimistic at the moment. We should be more cautious. The number of unemployed people will be more unemployed in the future, especially as the number of graduates increases further next year, and some high-tech industries are still in the initial stage of climbing. At present, there are not many high-end jobs, because with the accumulation of the technology industry in recent decades, relatively high-end jobs are actually decreasing year by year. As for the traditional manufacturing industry, there are relatively few good jobs that can be provided. The ability of graduates does not match the current industry, and the number of graduates is about 10 million, resulting in a serious imbalance in the supply and demand relationship. As the saying goes, scarcity is precious. At present, most people have any scarcity and irreplaceability, and employment can only be under great pressure.
In short, everyone must be mentally prepared to deal with this bad expectation.
