The collective advantages of Chinese brands need to be further consolidated, but market share exceeding "50%" is a striking signal. This marks that the "rising" Chinese brand has the ability to "change the pattern".
Author丨Zhang Min
Edit丨Dahua
Produced by Dahua
Automan full media
Only one era is entering a new stage, people in it can suddenly realize what they have experienced. Grand narratives are just the perspective of future generations.
seems to be inadvertently, more and more Chinese brand cars are running on the road. Embodied in the digital level, the market share of Chinese automobile brands has reached a new high. After
accounted for half of the market in September this year, the market share of Chinese brand passenger cars in October once again exceeded 50%: 1.187 million units were sold, and increased by 23.5% year-on-year, and the market share rose to 53.2%. From January to October, a total of 9.35 million passenger cars were sold in Chinese brands, an increase of 26.1% year-on-year, and a market share of 48.7%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points over the same period last year.
In the world's largest automobile market, the market share of Chinese brand passenger cars has achieved a leading position at home, which is a symbolic key node. The era of
was divided into this. It seems that at some point, Chinese companies' efforts to develop their own brands over the years have suddenly gained the "amplifier effect". What happened in the past two years? This is the two years when new energy is deepening and penetration rate is rising .
In October this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 762,000 and 714,000 respectively. increased by 87.6% and 81.7% year-on-year, with a market share of 28.5%; from January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 5.485 million and 5.28 million respectively, both increasing by 1.1 times year-on-year, and the market share reached 24%. It is estimated that the annual sales of new energy vehicles may reach 6.7 million.
It can be seen that the growth of Chinese brand market share was achieved with the explosion of new energy vehicles. Since everyone believes that new energy, especially electrification, is the definite future, is the market share increase of Chinese brands an accidental fluctuation or is it solidified into a trend?
What has happened to
Rome was not built in one day. Without years of preparation and accumulation, there would be no accumulation of today.
Looking back vertically from a historical perspective.
In 2000, we completed "initial industrialization", which is essentially an internal capital accumulation , that is, the agricultural department transfers resources to the industrial department and realizes internal accumulation.
Entering the WTO in 2001 made China bind with the global industrial division of labor for the first time, and China's industrial potential was quickly realized. The entry of external capital has greatly accelerated the process of industrialization, and has actually become the most magnificent mileage in human history, even exceeding the vibrant American industrialization experience before 1890.
However, by 2012, history had undergone subtle changes. China's economic size has reached the second place in the world, and it is no longer realistic to continue to develop in a double-digit extensive manner - there is no such a large market to occupy.
Trade resistance is increasing. The original division of labor system, that is, the West occupies a transcendent position of high-tech and investors, and continuously transfers labor-intensive and low-tech content to mainland China. The latter is at the end of the industrial division of labor - hard work, low profits, and high pollution. After completing the initial accumulation, such days are obviously unsustainable.
Moreover, China's complete education system, long-term planning of national strategies, and the development ambition of major countries all require China to develop towards the high-end of the industrial chain. This will inevitably conflict with the original division of labor system. On the one hand, Europe, the United States and Japan frequently put pressure on China on the other hand, and on the other hand, they strictly restrict the flow of high-tech to China... These are all direct manifestations of this conflict.
The automotive industry especially needs transformation. In 2012, Chinese auto brands have already reached a considerable scale, but at the same time they are facing the obvious glass ceiling 0,000-100,000 yuan.On the surface, consumers do not recognize that independent brands can make high-end products, have brand premiums and high-end corporate image. Looking back now, China's automobile industry was on the eve of a breakthrough at that time.
The situation at that time was not clear, and it even made people pessimistic. In the past five years, the market share of Chinese brands was only 33.5%, and it was set in June 2020, which is unexpectedly close to today. And 40% is the industry-recognized warning line for survival of Chinese brands.
Afterwards proved that the trough was a turning point. In less than two years, Chinese brands have risen strongly. In 2021, the market share of Chinese brands was 44.6%, an increase of 6 percentage points. This trend will be further consolidated and strengthened in 2022.
What can tell the problem more than numbers is momentum. After the younger generation of consumers entered the market, they did not continue their unconditional trust and admiration for multinational brands. This may be due to the growth of the post-95s and post-00s, which is closely related to the rise of China's national strength. Their values and worldview were also formed at this time.
Moreover, the new generation of consumers generally have strong access to information and logical analysis capabilities, and can rely more on non-profit third-party evaluations and complaint data from regulatory agencies. This brings new opportunities to Chinese brands. Their long-term accumulation of technology investment does not have to cross the brand premium of competitors (joint venture brands) and directly compete.
Compared with those born in the 1980s and 1970s, the post-90s have a broader vision and more diverse information. Their growth environment is relatively good, and their brand choices for food, clothing, housing and transportation are more objective and pragmatic. They have witnessed the upgrading of domestic brands, from daily home appliances to mobile phones, now cars... They no longer blindly pursue Western brands like their predecessors.
Of course, this also stems from the enhancement of China's comprehensive national strength and influence, which has improved the cultural confidence of the Chinese people.
Post-90s who have received higher education will pay more attention to their own experience when making consumption decisions, rather than the experiences of previous generations. They focus on the experience of technology and hope that their vehicle is not just a car, but a more diverse carrier: a communication tool, a social tool, and an unconventional travel tool.
Fortunately, Chinese brand cars hit this "hot spot".
seized the opportunity of the times
More importantly, China Automobile seized the opportunity of the times of transformation and upgrading. Of course, this process is not easy, and even moves forward in a tortuous way while trying.
In the early stages of China's automobile industry development, industrial accumulation has not been completed. Compared with the technical generation of developed automobile countries, it is even harder to match.
From government supervision to enterprise level, we have long realized that relying on foreign investment and foreign parties (partners) is impossible to complete industrial upgrading and create a competitive Chinese brand.
joint venture itself cannot change the ownership of intellectual property rights. The authorized platform, introduced vehicle models, production line management, and quality control all copy the practices of foreign parties in the joint venture, but the result is that they know the truth but not the reason.
has not experienced a complete forward development process, and even if all software and hardware are given, it is difficult to form independent product development capabilities. The platform authorization that foreign countries can provide is at least two generations behind the main platform.
is obviously vigilant. Even after losing scale, market and cost advantages, Western countries also tried to seize the lifeline from the upstream links such as key components (such as chip ), key processes, and key equipment. China has the corresponding capabilities, and then dumps at a lower cost price, trying to defeat the upgrade capabilities China has just had. If the Chinese can’t do it, just wait to be choked.
The key to breaking the deadlock is independent innovation. This is why in recent years, private enterprises and new forces have actively participated in independent innovation, and most of the joint ventures are determined to be "joint ventures and independence".
But the innovation path will not fall from the sky.An "Idea" with a clever inspiration is not innovation. Clear ideas, planning roadmap, detailed experimental data, small batches of finished products achieved at reasonable costs, including all the details of process control, and ultimately new value is a complete innovation.
In this, capital, talent, industry + IT technology foundations are indispensable. The most important initial element is capital.
money is not capital, money that has the intention to invest is. At the regulatory level, the state never issues an order to demand "innovation", but guides capital to "get out of virtual and real" and invest in industries, and encourages state-owned capital, private capital, and foreign venture capital to invest in "advanced manufacturing power".
Over the past twenty years of efforts, Chinese brands have made huge progress in styling, quality, core technology, etc., and have also won the recognition of Chinese consumers. However, it is obviously impossible to break through the advantages of multinational automakers in the field of internal combustion engines and .
China has chosen electrification to overtake on the curve. This is a strategic choice for industrial upgrading of a major country. Everyone started almost the same time. China's great achievements in the mobile Internet and ICT fields have fed back to the automotive industry, and the latter has gained additional impetus.
The country's policy guidance also means "setting the tone".
The State Council issued the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)" document, which clearly increased financial support and the subsidies of real money have completely activated the new energy vehicle market. Both the B-end and C-end have received a large amount of financial subsidies. At the same time, the government's new infrastructure, charging piles and other infrastructure are also following up quickly.
More and more emerging car manufacturing forces have joined, making this market increasingly active and ultimately forming an irresistible wave of new energy vehicles.
New car-making forces were born and took on the role of leader in the new energy market. Traditional car companies then embarked on the road of energy transformation. The entry of Tesla has aroused a pool of spring water.
If the new forces represented by "Wei Xiaoli" are considered the first generation of new energy transformation, then the second generation is the transformation of private enterprises ( BYD , Great Wall, Geely , etc.), and the rise of the third generation of forces is dominated by the current entrepreneurial enterprises incubated by state-owned enterprises.
The advantages of the new energy market of traditional independent car companies have begun to emerge. For private enterprises, BYD's position as the king of electric vehicles is unshakable. Geely actively promotes new energy technologies such as pure electric, super electric mixing, alcohol-electric hybrid, and battery swap. Great Wall is fully transforming with three routes: pure electric, hybrid, and hydrogen energy . As for state-owned car companies, the state supports reform and mixed reform to improve capital utilization efficiency.
Take the central enterprise Changan Automobile as an example to introduce external investors to realize the equity structure of Changan New Energy's mixed reform. In terms of electrification brands, Changan released the high-end smart electric brand Avita in 2021, and this year it released Deep Blue at the Global Partner Conference.
From the perspective of market demand, Avita targets the high-end market and competes for BBA's customer base; while Deep Blue corresponds to a number of new forces, occupying the mainstream ecological niche in the market, focusing on volume.
and GAC Group's new energy strategy chooses two routes to develop simultaneously. Aian focuses on the field of "EV+ICV", namely pure electric and intelligence; Trumpchi focuses on the field of "XEV+ICV", namely hybrid and intelligence, and will launch hydrogen energy products in a timely manner in the future. With the help of the dual hybrid routes of THS and GMC, Trumpchi successfully achieved an upward breakthrough in the brand.
Backed by GAC Group's state-owned enterprise resources, Aian has realized a dual-wheel drive ecological system of industry and capital through equity reform. Currently, Aian's monthly sales have exceeded 30,000 vehicles, and it has become a leading new energy company.
In the field of new energy, Chinese auto companies are no longer satisfied with creating new brands, but instead focus on conquering upstream technologies and have released technology brands (such as Great Wall's Haomo Zhixing and Xiandou Intelligent). The release of the latter is not the beginning of technological research and development, but a concentrated display of results. Multinational brands are already a little unable to keep up with the pace.
After the new energy technology has surpassed, the pace of new product release has suddenly accelerated.
FAW Hongqi (both fuel vehicles and new energy projects), Dongfeng Lantu, Changan Avita, GAC Aion, SAIC Zhiji and Feifan, as well as Great Wall Salon, Geely Zekr, and BYD Star, all aim at the high-end market. Taking the opportunity of creating new brands, they extend their product lines to the high-end and challenge multinational brands.
The underlying logic of the rise of
Chinese brands have grasped two major trends in the development of the automobile industry: one is electrification; the other is intelligence.
When Chinese brands achieve "overtaking on the curve" from these two technical fields, market share will come naturally.
In 2021, the market share of Chinese brands was 44%. Many people believe that this is " bottomed out and rebounded"; in fact, this is the starting point of the new trend.
Passenger Car Association data shows that in October this year, Chinese brands accounted for six of the top ten in the narrow passenger car wholesale volume rankings of car companies. The leading automakers have performed well in the transformation and upgrading, and the share of independent automakers such as BYD, , Geely Auto , Changan Automobile, and Chery Automobile has increased significantly. New energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, have become the new "growth pole" of Chinese brands.
In October, the penetration rate of Chinese brand new energy vehicles was 47.7%; the penetration rate of luxury brand new energy vehicles was 31.4%; while the penetration rate of mainstream joint venture brand new energy vehicles was only 4.7%.
In terms of brand influence, market research found that when talking about new energy, consumers generally think of BYD and Tesla, and also mention "Wei Xiaoli", but the proportion of joint venture brands is relatively low.
's strength comparison seems to reverse in an instant. However, we cannot forget that the competitive situation of the new technology track that has lasted for several years has already undergone subtle changes.
htmlOn the 4th, the company bought Wuling Hongguang MINI and dismantled the parts and placed them all on the ground. After carefully calculating the cost, the executives were silent. If Japanese companies come to purchase things in this place, they will have exceeded the ex-factory price of the vehicle. This is not a problem of cheap labor prices, but Chinese companies' leadership in grasping the electric supply chain, manufacturing process and quality control.
This is the first time in history, and it also reveals the true technical background.
New forces and high-end brands incubated by state-owned enterprises have proved that Chinese companies are not only good at manufacturing mid- and low-end electric models, but also show their strengths in mid- and high-end models for the first time. In other words, the rise in the market share of Chinese brands is no longer an accidental fluctuation, but is solidified into a trend.
Simply put, independent brands are staking or even surpassing joint venture brands in terms of electric vehicle supply chain, three-electric technology, as well as design, R&D and product quality.
In 2021, China produced 57% of the world's power battery (installed capacity accounts for 48.6%); in 2020, the EU market, which can still compete with China's new energy market, was left by China by 62% in 2021.
not only has the obvious head effect in the battery industry, but also has unique technical advantages in all-in-one motors and BMS control strategies. Previously, even the "positive research and development" process of a model became a publicity point; now electric vehicles are like "dumplings into the pot", but no one mentioned "positive".
This is no longer a "promotional point" worth talking about. On the contrary, no matter how multinational car companies claim "All In", most of them are one or two behind in the implementation of the electric strategy. Many of the electric vehicle products they released have strong traces of " oil to electricity ".
The life cycle of traditional models is generally as short as five or six years, and as long as eight or nine years. However, electric vehicles are different. The model development cycle is two or three years, and the platform life is also two or three years.
is like this, the rhythm of product life cycle, technology research and development cycle, and platform iteration cycle have all been brought up by Chinese companies. There are more electric cars sold by Chinese companies in one month than some joint ventures in one year.
Since 2012, in the ten years of the new era, China's automobile industry has initially achieved industrial upgrading on the basis of its existing huge scale, strengthened its own strength, and led and influenced the trend of technological development to a certain extent.
The historic achievements made by China's automobile industry are undoubtedly great and century-old. This is also the only successful case that in large developing countries has so far leaped in the international division of labor chain. The competition for
is far from over. Although the collective advantages of Chinese brands need to be further consolidated, market share exceeding "50%" is a compelling signal. This marks that the "rising" Chinese brand has already initially possessed the strength to "change the pattern". (This article was originally published in the 2022-November issue of "China Automobile World" magazine) [Copyright Statement] This article is an original manuscript of "Automan" and may not be reproduced without authorization.
