1. TDI industrial chain
TDI full name toluene diisocyanate , the core downstream application is polyurethane soft foam. polyurethane is a kind of polymer compound. It is a general name for macromolecular compounds containing repeating urethane groups on the main chain. It is widely used in the fields of home furnishing, construction, daily necessities, transportation and home appliances. TDI is The main raw material for the production of polyurethane. From the perspective of downstream consumption structure, TDI is mainly used in polyurethane soft foam, coatings, elastomers and adhesives, among which polyurethane soft foam (sponge and its products) is the most important application field, and common physical objects in terminal applications include sofas and mattresses. , car seats, etc.
TDI industry chain
Source: Compilation of public information
2. Analysis of the global TDI industry market status
1, global production capacity
According to statistics, the global TDI production capacity in 2020 was 3.495 million tons/year, an increase of 150,000 tons/year compared to 2019, in 2021 The annual global TDI production capacity is 3.495 million tons/year, which is the same as in 2020. The global TDI production capacity is expected to be 3.555 million tons/year in 2022.
Global TDI production capacity from 2018 to 2022
Source: Compilation of public information
2 and global consumption
In terms of consumption, according to statistics, global TDI consumption will increase from 2.5 million tons to 2.86 million tons from 2018 to 2021. It is expected that the global consumption in 2022 TDI consumption increased to 3.02 million tons.
Global TDI consumption and growth rate from 2018 to 2022
Source: Compilation of public information
Related report: "2022-2027 China Toluene Diisocyanate Industry Market Operation Status and Investment Strategy Research Report" released by Huajing Industrial Research Institute
三, China's TDI industry market status analysis
1, domestic production capacity and output
According to statistics, domestic TDI production capacity was 840,000 tons/year in 2018, which increased to 1.19 million tons/year in 2019, and the production capacity in 2021 is 1.42 million tons/year, which will remain unchanged. Change, the capacity utilization rate is 87%. It is estimated that my country's TDI production capacity will be 1.42 million tons in 2022, and the capacity utilization rate will increase to 91%.
China's TDI production capacity from 2018 to 2022
Source: Compilation of public information
The TDI industry is a highly monopolized industry. There are two foreign-funded enterprises and six local enterprises in my country with TDI production capacity. According to statistics, as of 2021, my country's TDI output is 1.24 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17%. my country's TDI output is expected to increase to 1.29 million tons in 2022.
China's TDI output and growth rate from 2018 to 2022
Source: Compilation of public information
2, import and export
In terms of import and export volume, my country's TDI export volume far exceeds import volume, and import volume is declining. According to statistics, in 2021, my country TDI import volume dropped to 16,100 tons, and export volume increased to 369,900 tons. With the increase in production capacity, domestic TDI supply exceeds demand. In order to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand, domestic TDI manufacturers actively explore overseas markets, and TDI export volume generally increases. trend. As of January to April 2022, my country's TDI import volume was 4,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.16%, and its export volume was 116,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.93%.
my country's TDI import and export volume statistics from 2015 to April 2022
Source: China Customs, compiled by Huajing Industrial Research Institute
In terms of import and export volume, according to statistics, as of January to April 2022, my country's TDI import volume was US$90 million. A year-on-year increase of 13.73%, the export value was US$261 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.31%.
my country’s TDI import and export statistics from 2015 to April 2022
Source: China Customs, compiled by Huajing Industrial Research Institute
From the perspective of the source of my country’s TDI imports, Saudi Arabia and Japan are the main importing countries of my country’s TDI in 2021 The import volumes were 8,464 tons and 3,493 tons respectively, accounting for 74.28% of the total.
Import volume distribution of China's TDI import sources in 2021 (unit: %)
Source: China Customs, compiled by Huajing Industrial Research Institute
Export destinations, Vietnam , Brazil , the United States, Indonesia , Russia The Federation is my country's main export destination for TDI. In 2021, the export volume accounted for 8.31%, 8.27%, 8.09%, 5.98% and 5.13% respectively, and the export volume from other regions accounted for 64.22%.
Export volume distribution of China's TDI export destinations in 2021 (unit: %)
Source: China Customs, compiled by Huajing Industrial Research Institute
3, demand status
With the growth of domestic TDI production capacity, my country's apparent TDI consumption in 2021 is 890,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons compared with 2020. It is expected that my country's apparent TDI consumption will increase to 920,000 tons in 2022.
China's TDI apparent consumption and growth rate from 2018 to 2022
Source: Compilation of public information
At present, domestic downstream demand for TDI is dominated by soft foam (sponge and its products), with demand accounting for 69.2% in 2021, and coating demand accounting for 69.2%. 20.4%, demand for sealants and elastomers accounted for 4.2% and 3.9% respectively, and demand in other fields accounted for 2.3%.
Domestic TDI downstream demand distribution in 2021 (unit: %)
Source: Compilation of public information
4, price trend
From April to May 2020, affected by the epidemic, downstream enterprises did not start smoothly, demand declined, and TDI prices fell. At the same time, the rise in crude oil prices has driven up the price of related raw materials and the gross profit per ton of TDI has declined in the short term. As of mid-May 2022, the gross profit per ton of TDI has reached -328 yuan/ton. As the epidemic situation improved, TDI prices began to rebound in June.
China's TDI price trend from 2020 to 2022
Source: Compilation of public information
IV. Analysis of global and Chinese TDI industry competition landscape
The world's TDI manufacturers are mainly distributed in Western Europe, , North America, Japan and other countries and regions. Among them, BASF , Bayer , Huntsman, Dow Chemical, Japan's Mitsui and other multinational companies occupy a major share of the global TDI market. With the economic growth in Asia and the improvement of people's living standards, Asia has gradually become the world's major TDI production and consumption region, especially China, which has become the world's largest TDI producer and consumer.
Global TDI production capacity distribution
Source: Compilation of public information
Global TDI production capacity is highly concentrated in 2021. Covestro, BASF and Wanhua Chemical rank among the top three in the industry, with production capacity accounting for 23% and 22% respectively. % and 19%, Juli , Sadara, Korea Hanwha , Cangzhou Dahua four companies accounted for a total of 21%, and other companies accounted for 15% of the production capacity.
Global TDI production capacity distribution in 2021 (unit: %)
Source: Compilation of public information
There are currently three companies in the world building TDI production capacity. Among them, Wanhua Chemical is expected to invest 250,000 tons of TDI production capacity in 2023, with an investment of 1.927 billion yuan. . Cangzhou Dahua is expected to invest 4.5 billion yuan to build a TDI production capacity of 265,000 tons, and foreign-funded enterprise BASF is expected to invest in a TDI production capacity of 60,000 tons in Shanghai.
Global TDI production capacity under construction
Source: Compilation of public information
Affected by the shutdown of Gansu Yinguang equipment and the maintenance of some manufacturers, the TDI operating rate will continue to decline in 2022. As of June 16, the domestic TDI operating rate has dropped to 68.91%. Entering June, Shanghai Covestro, Shanghai BASF and Wanhua Fujian units have maintenance plans, and Japan's Mitsui is also in the maintenance stage.
TDI maintenance plan for many devices in June 2022
Source: Compilation of public information
5. TDI production process
The TDI production device uses toluene and nitric acid as raw materials, and uses a two-step method to produce dinitrotoluene. Dinitrotoluene reacts with hydrogen under the action of a catalyst to generate toluenediamine, which then reacts with phosgene to generate TDI. The TDI generated by the reaction is a mixture with many impurities. After purification by the refining system, qualified TDI products. Phosgene in the production process is generated by the reaction of CO gas produced by the gas production device and chlorine produced by the electrolysis device.
TDI production technology and process
Source: Cangzhou Dahua Company announcement, compiled by Huajing Industrial Research Institute
6. China’s TDI industry market prospects
China’s auto and housing markets will continue to be sluggish in the next few years. Without policy stimulus, domestic demand will The risk of shrinkage is still high and will continue to affect the performance of the TDI industry chain. TDI terminals are closely connected with the housing market and the automobile market. Whether sponge products or curing agents are ultimately digested by the housing market and the automobile market, the shrinkage of the furniture and automobile fields will have a direct impact on the TDI market and the consumption of TDI will be reduced. However, with the gradual control of the epidemic at home and abroad in 2022, part of the demand suppressed in the early stage of the downstream is expected to be released. In addition, major foreign TDI devices are expected to be overhauled in 2022, and the domestic export channels that have been formed will bring benefits to the domestic market. With effective support, it is expected that the overall demand in 2022 will be better than that in 2021.
Huajing Intelligence Network is affiliated to Huajing Industrial Research Institute, focusing on industrial economic intelligence and research in Greater China. The current main products and services provided include traditional and emerging industry research, business plans, feasibility studies, market research, and special reports. , customized reports, etc. Covering culture and sports, logistics and tourism, health care, biomedicine , energy and chemical industry, equipment manufacturing, automotive electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, etc., it also conducts in-depth research on smart cities, smart life, smart manufacturing, new energy, new materials, and new consumption. , new finance, artificial intelligence , " Internet + " and other emerging fields.
