This week, the mainstream prices in the spot market fluctuated and rose as a whole. Generally speaking, the market transactions improved slightly, and the inventory of various varieties continued to show a slight decline. At the same time, in view of the impact of the high price of bifocals, it has a certain supporting effect on the prices of various varieties of resources. In addition, although the traditional "Golden September" month is approaching, as the country's various varieties of resources have not shown signs of continuous recovery, the short-term prices of various varieties of resources will still fluctuate in a narrow range.
August 29 Tangshan Steel City Express
Tangshan Pu billet: In the early trading of August 29, the billet ex-works in Qian'an area of Tangshan remained stable at 4950 compared with yesterday, and the billet ex-works in Lulong area of Qinhuangdao remained stable at 4950 compared with yesterday. Warehousing spot report 5020-5030 out of the warehouse including tax. At present, the billet market is performing generally, and the downstream finished products are stable, and the overall transaction is cautious.
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The specific transactions are as follows:
section steel: Tangshan section steel prices are stable, and mainstream steel mills are currently quoting I-beam 5410-5420, angle steel 5360-5390, channel steel 5400-5410, the market trading atmosphere is light, individual manufacturers increase preferential treatment to promote shipments, but the downstream is difficult to accept, the overall transaction is average.
Strip steel: the mainstream of Tangshan 145 strip steel is stable, some manufacturers drop 20 in the intraday, the transaction is average, and the overall transaction is cautious. Now it is 5450 and Jinkun 5430, all including tax and ex-factory; Tangshan 355 strip steel market price Compared with yesterday's late trading, it was stable. The mainstream spot market was 5610-5620, and the spot price was 30 higher than the forward resource price, and the transaction was light.
Hot roll: Tangshan Kaiping flat market prices remain stable, 1500 wide flat flats Tanggang 5710, Yanshan Iron and Steel/Anfeng 5700, Manganese Kaiping 5850, including tax.
Medium plate: Tangshan plate market price rose 10, Tangshan Iron and Steel 14-25mm general plate reported 5560, low-alloy plate 5760, including tax.
Building materials: Tangshan construction steel market prices are temporarily stable, and the current three-level large thread is 5160, the third-level small thread is 5300, the coil rose by 20 to 5570, and the high line is 5320.
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billet: Tangshan billet is generally delivered directly, and the warehouse spot is reported to be 5020-5030 including tax and low price transaction. The downstream finished products have a steady tone, and the overall transaction is cautious.
National market inventory of various varieties
1. Construction steel
This week, the national construction steel prices showed an overall trend of volatility. The main reason is that the snail night market trend was still good at the end of last week, market confidence was restored, and market prices in various places adjusted upwards over the weekend. Entering the week, due to the decline in mid-week transactions and the lower-than-expected performance of national inventory data, the prospects for snails fell sharply, leading to a slight decline in market prices. At the end of the week, the snails of the futures market rebounded sharply from the low level, the market transactions were released in a concentrated manner, the mood of the merchants improved, and the prices rose. The whole week showed a trend of strong volatility.
For next week: 1. In terms of supply, from the current state of enterprise production, long- and short-process enterprises are still affected by production restrictions and power restrictions, but the degree of influence is weakening. In addition, the influencing factors leading to the current variety supply increase and decrease also include variety conversion and sales benefits. Therefore, for the current stage when the spot price has not left the adjustment cycle, the upper limit of supply growth will continue to be limited.
2. From the perspective of demand, the demand performance this week has improved from the transaction data, but the performance of the demand data is not satisfactory. In addition, the national transaction value still fluctuates greatly, and the low value is still relatively low. However, Nanjing, Jiangsu has been gradually unblocked, and after the epidemic in Yangzhou has been brought under control, the risk value has been further reduced. The subsequent restoration of the Jiangsu region will be able to further increase the demand.
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3. From the perspective of mentality, due to the current national demand has not shown a continuous recovery, the rise of resource prices has always lacked strong power support, and market businesses At this time the mentality is more cautious. However, the current high price of bi-coke makes the production cost of steel mills not much different from the previous period. In the context of production restrictions, steel mills have a strong willingness to raise prices after the occurrence of low prices
Table 1: Statistics of social stocks of construction steel in 35 major cities across the country (2021.8.20-2021.8.27)
2. Hot-rolled coil
The domestic hot-rolled coil market price fluctuated upward this week.The average price of 3.0mm hot-rolled coils in 24 major markets across the country was 5,757 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coils was 5,687 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton from last week Ton.
East China market: Shanghai hot-rolled coil market prices fluctuated this week. As of press time, mainstream prices for 1500mm carbon hot coils are 5640-5660 yuan/ton, and 1800mm wide coils are quoted at 5770-5790 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of 1500mm low alloy is 5790-5810 yuan/ton, and the price of 1800mm low alloy is 5990-6010 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the cargo market fluctuated upward, and the spot market had strong confidence. Merchants' quotations gradually rose. Low-level transactions were acceptable, while high-level transactions were relatively weak. As the futures fluctuated and fell in the middle of the week, the spot market's mentality weakened, and merchants' quotations fell weakly. After the drop, market transactions were generally average. With the rebound of futures at the end of the week, the spot market price pulled up again, and the transaction slightly improved. At present, market demand has not improved significantly, and transactions are difficult to continue to release. As the end of the month is approaching, merchants are still focusing on the return of funds for shipments. However, considering the high transaction volume of orders, they are unwilling to sell too low.
South China market: Hot coil prices in Guangzhou market fluctuated downward this week, and demand performance was average. At present, the price of ordinary steel coils above 4.75mm in leading steel mills is 5500-5520 yuan/ton, and the price of low-alloy coils is between 5670-5690 yuan/ton. The price of hot coils in Guangzhou dropped 40-50 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of the market, this cycle is dominated by volatility of goods, and market quotations mostly follow the fluctuations of the disk. Due to the current weak downstream demand, early-week transactions are weak, but as the end-of-week prices fall, some of the low-priced transactions are acceptable. In terms of resources, due to the decrease in the arrival of new resources in the market and the successive destocking, the current hot coil spot inventory in the market has decreased. According to the same caliber, the current local hot coil inventory is about 776,000 tons, an increase of about 32,500 tons from last week.
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North China market: The hot-rolled coil market price in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region continued to fluctuate this week, and the market price in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region did not change much. This week, the steel market opened higher and lowered lower, fluctuating weakly, the sentiment was pessimistic, and the market's willingness to uphold prices was low. Among them, the hot coil in Tianjin increased by 10 yuan/ton from last week, and the price of hot coil in Beijing decreased by 10 yuan/ton from last week.Hot coil prices in Tangshan have remained stable compared to last week, hot coil prices in Handan have increased by RMB 10/ton from last week, and hot coil prices in Shijiazhuang have increased by RMB 30/ton from last week. In terms of the market, the price of hot-rolled coils in the Taiyuan market has also fluctuated slightly due to the continued volatility of ferrous metal futures. September is approaching, the demand has not recovered, and the emotional instability has been added to the market's bearish expectations. The futures disk continues to fluctuate and weaken. The future trend depends on whether the policy is stable or not. In terms of transactions, the recent transactions of mainstream steel products have been cold, and the circulation side has reported that recent shipments have been weak, and market quotations have been disordered, with low-level transactions dominated. On the consumer side, affected by the recent overall weakness in the steel market, the frequency of terminal purchases has slowed down, and more cautious wait and see, focusing on on-demand purchases.
Table 2: Changes in HRC inventory in major cities across the country (2021.8.20-2021.8.27)
3. Plate
This week, the domestic plate market fluctuated and strengthened as a whole In the short term, the following factors are mainly concerned: 1. From the perspective of supply, the frequency of maintenance and resumption of steel mills is still relatively high in the near future, and the output of steel mills in the short term may continue to be maintained at about 1.35 million tons, with limited room for increase or decrease. In terms of subregions, the Southwest and South China regions are currently experiencing significant year-on-year production reductions, while the Northwest, Central-South and East China regions have shown a slight year-on-year increase in production; 2. In terms of circulation, the current single-handed price of steel mills is higher. Taking into account the cost, Traders are reluctant to sell, and the room for continued price declines in the short term is very limited. 3. In terms of demand, the market reported a slight improvement in demand at the beginning of the week, and the overall transaction situation was acceptable. As futures fell sharply, demand deteriorated again and transactions were weak. Steel mills are currently Receiving orders is relatively stable, and the number of hand-held orders is acceptable.
Table 3: Main 65 cities' medium plate social inventory statistics (2021.8.20-2021.8.27)
The market transactions are average. Fundamentally, cold-rolled production has increased on a week-on-week basis.The factory inventory increased slightly, and the social inventory decreased. Looking back at the cold rolling market this week, most of the merchants focused on shipments, the market transactions were average, and the low-level transactions were acceptable. In terms of the price difference between cold and heat, the price of hot-rolled raw materials was affected by the weak operation of the electronic disk . The price decline was relatively large, and the average price of cold and hot continued to expand to around 800 yuan/ton. In terms of orders from steel mills, since market demand in August was still not as good as expected, merchants were more cautious in ordering in September, and this month’s settlement price feedback indicated that there was no profit or even an upside-down.
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In summary, from the supply side, some steel mills went through maintenance in September, and the cold rolling supply has decreased; the market sentiment , Near the end of the month, some merchants still have financial pressure and strong willingness to ship goods. It is not ruled out that there may be a hidden drop in the sales; due to the lower than expected demand in July and August, the cold-rolled cooperative warehouse increased by about 10% year-on-year; downstream traditional industry demand There are no obvious signs of warming up, and the overall emotional side is empty.
Table 4: Cold rolled coil social inventory statistics in 29 major cities across the country (2021.8.20-2021.8.27)
Driven by macro factors, the spot performance was volatile. On the whole, in the first half of the week, as the degree of resumption of production fell short of expectations and the impact of rising billet prices, the overall price of the spot market remained steadily stronger. However, after the middle of the week, market resource transactions are limited, and the futures market is loosened by the weekend, so the merchants operate to make profits. At present, the national average price of angle grooves in mainstream cities across the country has increased by 20-30 yuan/ton from last week, and the national average price of H-beam steel has increased by 20 yuan/ton from last week.
It is expected that the current supply-side response rate is relatively slow, coupled with the current low resource pressure on the factory and inventory, and the overall level of billet prices at the current stage is superimposed. Therefore, the long and short process companies tend to maintain a high price attitude towards the ex-factory price. , The spot cost is limited. Secondly, the demand side market at the current stage is limited in volume, and even if the merchants are tight on the follow-up resource supply in the spot market,However, due to the pressure of turnover and capital, conventional shipments restrained prices from rising sharply. Finally, next week is about to enter September. The market mentality for basic demand expectations is relatively optimistic, but the overall market replenishment volume has not increased significantly. Less pressure on resources.
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6. Steel pipe
Seamless pipe: The price of seamless pipe rose slightly this week, and the price of seamless pipes rose slightly in 27 major cities across the country 108*4.5 The average price of mm seamless pipe is 6,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton from last week; prices in most cities across the country are mainly stable, and prices in some cities have increased by 30-50 yuan/ton. On the market side: this week, due to the sharp increase in double focus, the overall national steel price rose slightly, and the market mentality improved slightly. The sales of seamless pipes across the country improved slightly compared with last week, and the traders as a whole focused on lowering inventories. In terms of inventory: the national social inventory of seamless pipes was 739,900 tons, and the inventory fell by 21,000 tons. This week, the merchants have a general mentality, but most of them said that their enthusiasm for obtaining goods has improved this week, and the transaction has increased to a certain extent compared with last week. The current mainstream willingness of merchants is to stabilize prices and reduce inventory, and they have a better attitude towards the market in September.
welded pipe: domestic market price of welded pipe increased this week, and inventory increased slightly. The average price of 4-inch*3.75mm welded pipes in 27 major cities across the country was 5,969 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the average price of 5950 yuan/ton last Friday. In terms of inventory: The national inventory of welded pipes on August 27 was 912,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons compared with 905,200 tons last Friday. This week, the black futures oscillated. In terms of demand, natural conditions for downstream construction improved and demand gradually recovered. However, due to high steel prices, downstream sourcing was cautiously wait-and-see, and the transaction was not as high as the same period last year. On the supply side, due to the shortage of strip steel in Tangshan area, some domestic welded pipe production was affected. Therefore, the two weak supply and demand situations last week continued this week. In terms of cost, the price of strip steel billet fluctuated and weakened, and the support effect on the price of welded pipe was weak.
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Macro industry, aspect
International aspect:
1, US Federal Reserve Board Chairman Powell said on the 27th,If the overall US economic development is in line with expectations, it may be appropriate for the Fed to start reducing its asset purchase plan this year, but it will take time to raise interest rates. On the same day, Powell attended the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Forum, known as the Global Central Bank Conference, on the same day that the U.S. economy has made "further substantial progress" towards the goal of price stability, and has also made significant progress in achieving full employment.
2. The Bank of Korea raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the first rate hike during the COVID-19 pandemic, in line with market expectations. South Korea became the first major economy in Asia to "raise interest rates" since the epidemic.
Domestic:
1. The central bank invested 120 billion yuan in net investment this week; Mysteel investigated 247 blast furnaces operating rate rose to 74.22%, and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants nationwide fell below 70% for three consecutive weeks; The prices of ore, thermal coal, rebar, and flat water copper all rose, and the prices of cement and concrete continued to rise; the average daily retail sales of passenger cars for the week was 38,000, down 18%; BDI fell 3.52%.
2. The high profit growth rate of industrial enterprises continued in July. According to data, in July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 16.4% year-on-year, 39.2% year-on-year, and an average increase of 18.0% in two years, 2.3 percentage points faster than June; from January to July, industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide The total profit achieved was 492.395 billion yuan, an increase of 57.3% year-on-year, an increase of 44.6% year-on-year, and an average increase of 20.2% over the two years.
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3. Baosteel Co., Ltd. disclosed the semi-annual report on the evening of August 27. The company achieved operating income of 185.252 billion yuan in the first half of 2021. A year-on-year increase of 42.75%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 276.74%. It is reported that the company's operating performance hit a record high in the same period. The profit in the second quarter was 13 billion yuan, the highest in a single quarter in history; the total profit achieved in the first half of the year was 20.50 billion yuan, an increase of 253% year-on-year, which was the best performance in the same period since listing.Operating performance continues to remain the first in the domestic industry.
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Steel Market Supply and Demand Analysis
In general, the domestic steel market prices have generally fluctuated upwards this week. First of all, from the perspective of supply, the overall supply of steel mills has not increased significantly at this stage, and downstream demand has increased slightly. However, due to the tight downstream funds, market transactions are still not as expected. In terms of inventory, social library resources declined slightly this week, and the data on table demand continued to rise. The market is still relatively optimistic about the mid to late period.
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