A-share chip semiconductors have changed frequently recently, especially the phenomenon of low-level and large-yang lines in the PCB sector after nearly a year of adjustment. What is the logic behind this phenomenon?
wafer fabs have risen in price, packaging and testing factories have risen in price, and now PCB ( printed circuit board ) factories have also raised prices, the entire electronics manufacturing industry seems to be unable to escape the curse of price increases. According to the data released by TPCA (Taiwan Circuit Board Association), the PCB output value of Taiwanese enterprises on both sides of the Taiwan Strait reached US$6.108 billion in the first quarter of this year, hitting a record high in the first quarter of the year and an increase of 26.7% over the same period last year. The proportion of regional production is about 63.2%, and the output value in the second quarter is estimated to reach 6.2 billion US dollars.
And according to the data of CITIC Electronics and Shenwan Electronics, the performance of the PCB sector in A-share listed companies is also very eye-catching in 2021Q1, with an increase of 43.7% in revenue and a 45.6% increase in net profit attributable to the parent. In addition to the soft-rigid combination board , which was affected by the change of product design of AirPods, the growth rate of Taiwanese enterprises' soft board , multi-layer board , and HDI (high density interconnection) board has a growth rate of more than 20%. TPCA believes that this is due to the high-end 5G mobile phones, the trend of remote office and teaching driven by the epidemic in the laptop market, and the improvement of the global automobile market. Various advantages of terminal products.
The entire semiconductor industry has grown substantially this year, which has also driven the growth of IC carrier boards and HDI boards . But at the same time as performance growth, PCB manufacturers have also started price increases. For example, Victory Macro stated on the interactive platform that the company's PCB products follow the principle of market-based pricing , and will negotiate pricing with customers in consideration of market supply and demand, raw material price fluctuations, etc. The current increase in raw material prices may lead to an increase in the company's product prices .
The increase in raw material prices is the main driver of this round of price increases. This scene is very similar to the situation in 2018. In the same year, it was also because the supply of copper foil was in short supply, which made the prices of various raw materials continue to rise . In fact, PCB upstream raw materials have continued to rise from the end of 2020 to the present, and overbooking, rushing for production capacity, and rushing for raw materials have become the norm. The terminal demand remains high, and the upstream raw material supply of and is also difficult to solve in the short term. Seeing that the traditional peak season of electronic products is coming, if the demand continues to remain unchanged, it cannot be ruled out that there will be a continued increase in the third quarter.
In summary, investors who have the ability to track industry dynamics can continue to track the sub-sectors that are proliferated by the shortage of chip semiconductors, or there may be opportunities for excess benefits.
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【Wang Jianjun, Practice Certificate No.: A0790618080001】
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