Demystifying earthquake clouds, can clouds predict earthquakes?

Baidu Tieba Earthquake Bar, she has always been the number one member of the humanities and nature catalog. It can be seen that many people are very concerned about the natural phenomenon of earthquakes. As a frequent tectonic movement of the earth, earthquakes have a direct impact on human production and life, and have even changed the course of history many times. The ancient city Pompeii on the Apennine Peninsula was completely destroyed because of the earthquake that triggered the eruption of Mount Vesuvius.

​​Pompeii ruins

In order to fight against earthquakes, as the world's most seismically active Japan, a large number of professionals who study earthquakes have been born. They are the most outstanding in the field of earthquake research in the world. The geology and engineering mechanics disciplines in Japan are the strongest in the world. How advanced are they? For example, for a cliff with a crumbling rock on it, Japanese scientists can use the knowledge of mechanics to calculate when it will roll down.

The Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923

It is understood that Japan has reached the world's number one lead in earthquake prediction. Thousands of elementary, elementary, and kindergarten campuses in Japan have installed strong earthquake early warning devices, which can predict a few seconds to tens of seconds in advance of a strong earthquake. The Japanese geology community believes that earthquakes generally involve relatively weak seismic waves reaching the ground ahead of time, followed by stronger seismic waves. There is an interval of several to tens of seconds between seismic waves of different intensities. The strong earthquake early warning device detects relatively weak seismic waves, and then immediately warns the crowd that a "strong earthquake is coming", giving people a few seconds to tens of seconds to escape.

3.11 Schematic diagram of the principle of strong earthquakes in the seas around Honshu Island, Japan

Practice has proved that this forecasting device is indeed effective. Since the government has promoted and installed it, it has been forecasted many times every year, saving many lives. For example, at 9:41:12 on July 22, 2007, the Meteorological Agency predicted an earthquake in Kumamoto City, Kyushu. The 41:15 forecast device had already sounded an automatic alarm, and the students immediately retreated in an orderly manner under the organization of teachers. In the safe zone, 10 seconds later, a magnitude 5.8 earthquake came as scheduled. Due to an orderly retreat 10 seconds earlier, this earthquake caused only 2 minor injuries.

Japan's emergency earthquake early warning system operation process

Japan is the most powerful country in non-earthquake science, but at the same time, Japan is also a pseudo-science power. There is a Japanese businessman named Masaru Emoto, who wrote a book "Water Knows the Answer". The content is that water molecules have the same wisdom and life as humans, and it is probably an old trick of "all things have anims". There is no serious publishing house in Japan willing to publish this book, but Masaru Emoto is a Buddhist and knows some old relationships in the Buddhist world, so he found the Buddhist website to help promote and sell it. This book later entered the mainland of China and quickly resonated with the "pseudo-science community" in the mainland.


There is a positive resonance between the pseudo-scientific community in Japan and the pseudo-scientific community in the Mainland, and there is also the " earthquake cloud " theory of thinking. The term “earthquake cloud” originated in Japan. It was popular for a while before the 1980s, but it quickly lost its influence. The reason is that the Japanese scientific community came forward and publicly criticized this statement. It can be said that in Japan, the "earthquake cloud" doctrine has been negated, and only a few Japanese "minke" still insist on this. For example, the former mayor of Nara City, Tadasaburo Kada, is a strong advocate of "Earthquake Cloud". He claimed to have studied "earthquake clouds" for dozens of years and had successfully predicted several times, but his statement has been questioned by many people, who believe that he is a typical "after-attack" and cannot produce any objective evidence to prove himself. Coincidentally, this Kada Chusaburo is said to be also a Buddhist, which is intriguing. Z3z

Kada Chusaburo

"Earthquake Cloud" has almost lost the market in Japan, but since it spread to the Chinese mainland, some people really believe it. In the late 1980s, I read a well-known long-form reportage "Tangshan Earthquake", which contains many records about "earthquake clouds". According to the description in the book, the phenomenon of "earthquake cloud" has been recorded and studied by many people. But it was the 1970s and 1980s. It was an era when people’s scientific literacy was generally not very high, weird powers, and special functions were still popular. In addition, the Internet was not popularized at that time, and information was blocked, and many people were unable to find scientific information. AdvanceFor research, we can only adopt a half-trust attitude towards this, so the "earthquake cloud" doctrine can linger for a while. But to this day, the Chinese scientific community has completely denied this pseudo-science doctrine.

​​There are still many people who regard the trail cloud as an earthquake cloud

, but there are still some people in the private sector who continue to be superstitious about this statement. Li Ting, a postdoctoral researcher in meteorology from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, has made a lot of criticism and exposure in popular science articles. For this reason, the debate on the Internet with the "minke" people is extremely fierce.

Li Ting, postdoctoral fellow in meteorology

, no matter how many supporters of the "earthquake cloud" doctrine, or how stubborn they are, their behavior is nothing but a confrontation between the delusional community of the civil sciences and the mainstream science community. Can't win. It's like anti-biological geneticists. Don't look at their large numbers and aggressiveness, but after all they represent the pseudo-science camp, so they can't win, and they are doomed to fail from the beginning.

The so-called "earthquake cloud"

In short, the scientific community has long abandoned the term "earthquake cloud" and considers it to be a complete pseudo-scientific theory. The world-renowned academic journals "Nature" and "Science" have also published articles, believing that the research on "earthquake clouds" is neither rigorous nor factual. Famous scientists in the field of geology and professors at the Seismological Research Institute of the University of Tokyo, Tokuji Uzu, Tsunrei Ogihara, and others have made it clear that “&39;Earthquake Cloud&39; is a pseudo-scientific theory without any basis. How can the Earth’s internal activities be reflected in the sky? What?" How the


cloud layer is formed has long been scientifically conclusive. The water vapor in the atmosphere liquefies into small water droplets or condensed into small ice crystals when it is cold, and they mix to form floating polymers, which is the formation of clouds. Earthquakes are geological movements within the earth. Plates on the earth squeeze and collide with each other, causing vibrations caused by the rapid release of energy from the crust. This vibration process is an earthquake. Although earthquakes will release some gas inside the earth, the amount is very small, and the specific composition is just some common hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon gases, which cannot be aggregated into clouds. Some people like to make random associations, believing that the movement of the earth's interior can indirectly affect the atmosphere. This is naive thinking without any basis.

Tangshan Earthquake Site Memorial Hall

and those so-called "successful predictions" based on the "earthquake cloud" are even more nonsense and untenable at all.

The ordinary light-transmitting altocumulus cloud in spring has also been mistaken for "earthquake cloud".

"Folk forecasters" say that they have seen "earthquake cloud" and they speculate that an earthquake is about to occur somewhere, but scholars have discovered that, first, The location they forecast deviates too far. For example, "Earthquake Minke" Wang Youyi compared the "earthquake cloud" he found in Shijiazhuang to the earthquake that occurred in Qinghai. It is really hard to justify it. Second, according to the statistics of scientists, there are at least 5 million occurrences on the earth every year. There have been nearly 20,000 earthquakes every day on average. There is no earthquake, unless it is a planet like Mars that has cooled and died inside. It's just that most earthquakes are relatively weak in intensity and are not known to the public. The number of earthquakes on the earth is so frequent that "forecasters" can successfully predict a few at will, so these forecasts are not convincing at all. Third, after analyzing and studying all "earthquake clouds", they found that all It is just some ordinary clouds, and their formation has scientific basis. Some people even make a big joke when they regard the trail cloud as an earthquake cloud. The reason why their shapes and colors look "every strange" is only caused by human psychology.


Therefore, the "predictions" of the "seismologists" are nothing more than talking about themselves, and they have no real evidence at all.


Author: Suspected Explorer