Twenty years ago, taking a taxi was still a very luxurious thing. The driver's movements of the steering wheel, clutch, and gear lever at the same time made me feel that driving is not something that ordinary people can learn. Ten years ago, when I got my C1 driver's license, I have to say that my joy is comparable to a university notice. However, in the past ten years after getting the driver's license, there is very little experience in driving a manual transmission, and I also choose the automatic transmission if I buy a car myself. Just as the manual transmission gave me a sense of presence less and less, a news that Volkswagen Transmission (Shanghai) Company plans to stop production and will then enter the shutdown and liquidation process.
automatic transmission is dazzling, the presence of manual transmission is close to zero
What is the situation in the Chinese auto market? According to relevant data, the market share of new domestic manual transmission cars was only about 7% last year (2021), and it fell to less than 5% from January to May this year. It is hard to imagine that manual transmission was the main consumer force in China's auto market 10 years ago. Volkswagen captured this demand and established Volkswagen Transmission (Shanghai) Company in 2001. The classic MQ200 manual transmission comes from here. The manual transmission versions of classic models such as Volkswagen and Skoda were very popular among consumers. At that time, even mid-size cars such as Passat were widely equipped with manual transmission products.
Although in the first ten years of the 21st century, there were also products such as 4AT and 5AT in the domestic auto market. But the most intuitive difference between them and manual transmissions is the small number of forward gears. So theoretically, its fuel economy is not comparable to that of the manual transmission at that time. Not to mention, the early automatic transmissions were expensive, the shift logic was average, and the quality levels were uneven. If you encounter an automatic transmission that is comparable to a "metal mixer", it is better to save trouble if you get a manual transmission. Simply put, the biggest advantage of the early automatic transmissions in China is that they are experiencing trouble, and they are basically suppressed by manual transmissions in other aspects. No wonder some older drivers still like to call automatic transmission "the choice of people who can't drive."
However, the situation has changed in the second decade of the 21st century. With the improvement of the automatic transmission represented by Aixin 6AT, Volkswagen 7-speed dual-clutch, and Nissan CVT, it has improved in multi-speed, stability, load-bearing torque, fuel consumption performance, etc. And to control the cost to the level of 100,000-150,000 yuan, the largest market in China, automatic transmissions have begun to quickly erode the new car market for manual transmissions. It is worth mentioning that China's new car consumption market also ushered in explosive growth after 2008, becoming one of the single markets of automobile consumption in the world of tens of millions. The addition of more new consumer groups also destined that the automobile consumer product must become more "fool". Just like the professional photography market is that big, fully automatic point-and-shoot cameras, and now mobile phone photography, are the correct ways to popularize photography to more people. It is a pity that I can't buy a manual transmission in
, but more manufacturers have no plans to sell
at all. According to this statement, manual transmission is always destined to disappear, so without it in the future, it will have no impact on us. But even if the butterfly swings its wings, it may cause storms. What's more, the former mainstream market, how could the disappearance of manual transmission have no impact at all? The most intuitive influence of
is that car friends who really like manual transmission have almost zero choice. After excluding the classification of models with strong commercial atmosphere such as MPVs and pickups, manual transmission options are also provided, which are relatively closely linked to driving pleasure. They are the brothers of Toyota 86 and Subaru BRZ. Although the price trends of these two cars have risen in recent years, the price of 300,000 is already quite "friendly". The manual transmission that is more expensive than them is selected by Lotus EMIRA. It is worth mentioning that its 3.5T V6 version has and only offers one manual transmission option, which is a relatively pure option in this era. But this "pure" is expensive, and its guide price exceeds 1.1 million.
Later, in the range of 150,000 to 200,000 yuan, there are still models with hard-core off-road attributes such as Nissan Tuta and Beijing BJ40 that still offer manual transmission options. But the significance is obviously not much, because all the manual transmissions of Nissan Tuda are two-wheel drive models. Although the Beijing BJ40 provides a combination of manual + four-wheel drive, its overall configuration performance is still a low-end model in this model. As for more passenger models under 150,000, manual transmission has become a place that lowers the overall price range. The configuration of the "beggar among beggars" level is a common phenomenon. Many models are set up in a posture that they are not planning to sell at all.
In fact, manual blocking still has strong vitality in pursuing driving fun or extreme environmental driving control. However, the former can only be digested through the inventory of the second-hand market, and the latter will be further separated from passenger cars and will only be properly retained in vehicle models with tool attributes. In short, consumers who like manual transmission and have manual transmission models on hand can drive and cherish it.
automatic transmission fills the lower price, you can do without learning the C1 driver's license
manual transmission models are gradually disappearing. What impact will it have on the domestic automobile market? First of all, I would like to talk about earlier that the existing manual transmission models in the second-hand market will inevitably be impacted. However, this impact will be a polarized state. For Toyota 86, Subaru BRZ and other types that mainly focus on driving fun, or some classic manual transmission off-road vehicles, the prices of second-hand manual transmission models may be raised. However, for more manual used cars with tens of thousands of yuan in residual value , the further shrinkage of the new car market will also lead to further forgetting. For owners who still hold this type of car at hand, the depreciation rate will be relatively higher. Of course, since the residual value itself is not large, the depreciation rate does not have much impact on the absolute value.
has a greater impact on manual transmission supporting industrial chain . The suspension of Volkswagen Transmission (Shanghai) company this time is the most intuitive phenomenon. It can be foreseeable that in addition to retaining a small amount of manual transmission demand for commercial and tool-based manual transmissions in China, the remaining production capacity will be cut off one after another. As a member of the domino, the automatic transmission will usher in a brief glory after the manual transmission shrinks. For Chinese brands, the upward pressure on products has prompted them to replace more advanced automatic transmissions, such as the 8AT that has just been launched by , Chery, and , or the Aixin 8AT that more brands are currently purchasing. On the other hand, foreign-funded high-quality gearbox is also stepping up its "dumping". For example, the classic third-generation Aixin 6AT cooperated with GAC two years ago to bring nearly 400,000 units of annual production capacity.
Finally, there is another interesting influence, that is, is it necessary to learn the C1 driver's license? In fact, this has been a controversial topic since the past few years. Supporters believe that even if you drive an automatic transmission model every day, it is inevitable that you need to drive a manual transmission. Secondly, when taking the driver's license, you will be more at ease when driving an automatic transmission model. However, opponents believe that if you learn C1 but don’t turn on the manual transmission, you will forget it in the future. And the C1 driver's license test is more difficult, time-consuming, etc. However, judging from the current development trend, the significance of C1 driver's license to most people is indeed further declining. This is close to the factor of manual transmission exiting the stage of history, that is, driving should not be a matter for a few people. The history of automobile development, including the fields of automotive intelligence that we are now focusing on, is also intended to enable more people to become drivers. Since the development of products is constantly liberating people, why should we choose to mess with ourselves?
was written at the end of
manual transmission model gradually withdrawing from the mainstream stage. The essence is that manual transmission has reached the technical bottleneck, and it can even be said to be a certain "upper limit". In the field of fuel vehicles only, automatic transmissions have caught up with or even surpassed manual transmissions in the fields of gear number, stability, economy, etc. More importantly, the popularity of automatic transmissions means that more people can drive cars skillfully and effectively, which is the existence that follows the laws of automobile development.Just like when you were learning a driver's license in the early days, you had to change your tires and tinker with carburetor . But can you say that the emergence of "explosion-proof tires" and the emergence of electro-injection engine is counter-trend?
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