my country's automobile industry has developed very rapidly in the past few decades. my country has become the country with the largest automobile production and sales in the world for twelve consecutive years.
According to data statistics from the Ministry of Public Security, As of the end of August 2022, my country's car ownership has reached more than 310 million vehicles, continuing to maintain its position as the country with the largest car ownership in the world.
However, with the continuous increase in the number of automobiles in my country, coupled with the impact of various factors such as the epidemic in the past two years, the overall economic growth rate has slowed down, and the growth rate of automobile production and sales has begun to slow down or even decline in recent years.
From 2019 to 2020, the growth rate of my country's automobile production and sales has been negative. Although automobile production and sales resumed positive growth in 2021, the growth rate is also relatively slow.
In 2021, my country's automobile production and sales reached 26.082 million and 26.275 million respectively, an increase of 3.4% and 3.8% year-on-year respectively.
However, after entering 2022, due to the impact of various factors such as the epidemic and supply chain obstruction, the overall production and sales of automobiles have also been relatively slow.
From January to August 2022, automobile production and sales reached 16.967 million and 16.86 million respectively, an increase of 4.8% and 1.7% year-on-year respectively.
purely from the overall sales of automobiles, the overall automobile industry performed quite well, but specifically for some automobile manufacturers, different automobile manufacturers have different automobile models of sales.
has some leading auto manufacturers, and their sales continue to grow rapidly. Both the monthly sales volume and the cumulative sales from January to August are very large, and the cumulative sales of some models even reach more than 200,000.
For example, Dongfeng Nissan Sylphy, BYD Qin , Wuling Hongguang mini, and Volkswagen Lavida all reached more than 200,000 units from January to August.
However, the sales of many car manufacturers from January to August were actually not very optimistic, and some car models even recorded single digits in a single-month sales.
According to the data on insurance vehicles in August, there were 114 models with insurance under 10 vehicles in August;
of which 60 models had SUV sales below 10 vehicles.
sedan sales are less than 10 models.
MPV sales volume is less than 10 vehicles in total.
Among these models with sales volumes below 10, 33 models have only one insurance number per month, which is completely funny.
. Among these models with sales of less than 10 vehicles in a single month, there are some imported cars, some joint venture cars, and some pure domestic cars. Among the 114 models with insurance volumes of less than 10 vehicles, 71 are domestic cars, accounting for 62.2%.
Of course, there are various reasons why these models have such low sales. Some are because they cannot be sold due to market influence, resulting in lower and lower sales. Some are suspended from production, and some are manufacturers no longer put into the market.
But no matter what the reason causes the sluggish sales, it at least shows one problem. Against the background of increasingly fierce competition in the automotive industry, it does not mean that you can sell hot products if you create a car.
Especially in the context of consumers becoming more and more rational in buying cars and becoming more and more mature in the market, many vehicles in will become normal in the future. It is inevitable that the industry will be reshuffled. Many cars may be eliminated from the market, just like the mobile phone market back then.
When smartphones first emerged in the 2000s, my country's mobile phone industry was like the automobile industry today, and various mobile phone manufacturers sprung up like mushrooms after a rain.
In 2013, at the peak, the number of domestic smartphone manufacturers reached at least 380, and the number of smartphone models on sale exceeded 2,800 at its peak.
However, since around 2014, my country's mobile phone industry has ushered in a major reshuffle, and more and more market share has begun to gather in the top manufacturers, and manufacturers below the waist are slowly eliminated from the market.
As of now, there are less than 10 truly influential mobile phone brands in China, and the number of new mobile phones launched every year is also significantly reduced compared to before.
According to data released by Information and Communications Institute , from January to July 2022, there were only 186 new models of smartphones launched, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%. Currently, there are only about a few hundred smartphone models on sale in the entire market.
Judging from the actual situation of the domestic mobile phone market, most of the market share is occupied by the top 5 mobile phone manufacturers, while other small manufacturers have very small market share.
For example, in the second quarter of 2022, my country's mobile phone shipments totaled 67.4 million units, of which the five major manufacturers of vivo, OPPO, Honor , Xiaomi , and Apple shipped 58.5 million units, with a market share of 86.8%. The remaining market share of other brands was only 13.2%, and the head effect was very obvious.
After more than a few years, when we look back at the current automobile industry, it is estimated that the automobile industry is likely to re-take the old path of the mobile phone industry.
Currently, my country's automobile market is very large, and the number of corresponding automobile manufacturers is also very large. As of now, including domestic cars, joint venture cars, and pure imported cars, there are about 500 automobile brands that have business in China.
In addition, according to data released by third-party automotive platforms, there are also many models on the market. In August 2022, there were 473 SUV models on sale; there were 338 sedan models on sale, and 73 MPV models on sale.
is equivalent to the total number of models on sale in family cars.
But among so many models on sale, there are actually not many that have real sales. From the number of insurance coverage in August 2022, there are only about 180 brands that have real insurance coverage records, which means that there are nearly 320 car brands that have no sales in August. For these cars that have no sales, they are actually equivalent to cannon fodder.
According to the overall situation of the domestic automobile industry, the automobile industry will definitely face a new round of reshuffle in the future. Sooner or later, those brands without sales and market will be eliminated from the market. In the end, the automobile industry will be like the mobile phone industry, and most of the market will be occupied by dozens of top manufacturers.
And from the current actual situation, many car brands can't stand it anymore. Even if some brands struggle to support it, everything is unknown when it will fall, because the profits of the automobile industry are narrowing, and many new car-making forces are actually building cars at a loss.
For example, in the first half of 2022, my country's automobile manufacturing industry's operating income was 4089.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, but the total profit was only 212.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of as high as 25.5%.
Of course, the reason why the profits of the automobile industry dropped sharply in the first half of 2022 is that this is closely related to the supply chain being blocked and the price increase of parts, especially the price increase of chips, which further weakened the profit margin of automobile manufacturers.
But even if the price of parts does not increase, in the long run, under the background of increasingly fierce competition in the automotive industry, narrowing the profit margin of the automotive industry will be inevitable.
Under this background, many car manufacturers may suffer losses. For example, the current representatives of new car-making forces, Xiaopeng , Ideal, and NIO are actually in a loss state.
shows that according to the second quarter of 2022 financial report data released by these three major automobile manufacturers.
In the second quarter of 2022, Ideal Auto had a net loss of 641 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 172.2%. Based on the delivery of 28,700 vehicles, a loss of 22,300 yuan per car;
Xiaopeng Motor had a net loss of 2.709 billion yuan in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 126.1%. Based on the delivery of 34,400 vehicles, a loss of 78,700 yuan per car;
NIO had a net loss of 2.557 billion yuan in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 369.6%. Based on the delivery of 25,100, a year-on-year loss of 102,000 yuan per car.
Of course, for these new car-making forces, it is still good to be able to operate at a loss. In the past few years, many manufacturers have been unable to withstand the pressure and closed down.
There are traditional car manufacturers, such as Lifan , Zotye, Cheetah ; there are also some new car-making forces, such as Byton , Greenchi Automobile, etc.
Even though some new car-making forces have not fallen, they are currently struggling to support them, such as Jia Yueting’s ’s Faraday Future , etc.
It can be seen from this that although the market size of my country's automobile industry is very large and the market potential is very huge, not any manufacturer can gain a foothold in this market. It will be inevitable that the automobile industry will usher in a reshuffle in the future.
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