Today, the well-known domestic media Huxiu reported: "It was recently learned through multiple sources that the domestic models of Tesla , Model 3 and Model Y will undergo significant price reductions. Some sources said that the price reduction of Tesla's main sales model Model Y in China is expected to reach 40,000 yuan. In the end, the starting price of Model Y rear-wheel drive may drop to 270,000 to 290,000 yuan. (Huxiu Auto) "
Why will Tesla definitely reduce its price? Cake size + industry intra-roll + capacity cycle + shallow order depth. Let’s talk about the industry cake first. The end of 20-21 is a dividend period for the rapid electrification of high-end cars, and almost only Tesla + Wei Xiaoli enjoys the dividends of this industry. At the end of 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of B/C-class passenger cars reached 27% and 14% respectively, while that of 32.8% and 16.8% respectively in August this year. It can be seen that after the electrification rate of high-end passenger cars, the speed of cake expansion has slowed down significantly, but the increase in competitors is very fast, such as Zekr 001, Seal, Wenjie M5, M7, Deep Blue, etc., the product strength is also very strong, and the intensity of competition in this market has greatly increased. In addition, Tesla has raised prices this year with a large price increase and has a good basis for price reduction. Moreover, the rush to buy prices caused by the price increase in March has caused more overdrafts for subsequent orders. In terms of production capacity, Tesla's production capacity has been significantly improved, with the monthly production capacity of Shanghai's factory reaching 90,000 to 100,000 vehicles after upgrading. Based on the above reasons, Tesla's order depth continues to decline, and the domestic MY delivery cycle in September has reached 1-4 weeks. Moreover, Germany's production capacity continues to increase, and the future export tasks of Shanghai factories will decline again, and the proportion of domestic sales in Shanghai factories will be higher. Before the new "M2" car was launched, there were only M3 and MY, unless Tesla accepts insufficient capacity utilization next year and the decline in sales in the Chinese market, the price cut will inevitably increase domestic sales, and Tesla has enough strength and confidence. What will happen to the reduction of
price? This is subject to official information and we have no other information. Referring to the past Tesla's price cuts, it is speculated that the time for the price reduction is from mid-to-late November to early December this year, with the reason that the Shanghai factory will mainly take care of exports from October to November and will be delivered to the domestic market in December; it is speculated that the first price cut is 10,000 to 20,000 yuan, with the reason that car companies will basically not cut prices in one step and will continue to test market reactions. We do not know the authenticity of the "highest price reduction of 40,000 yuan" reported by Huxiu.com. It is very likely to be followed by the decline in costs next year and the intensification of industry competition, but we do not think Tesla will be in place in one step.
What is the impact of Tesla after the price cut? Intuitively, Tesla's price cut has a greater impact on competing models ranging from 200,000 to 400,000 yuan, especially 250,000 to 350,000 yuan. Overall, Wei Xiaoli is more affected than its own brands. The reason why Wei Xiaoli models are highly concentrated in the price of this with . However, we believe that the impact is controllable. Tesla is no longer the big catfish in 20 years. It used to actively cut prices and grab shares. Now it is a passive price reduction in the context of increasingly fierce internal revolving of the high-end car market, which is essentially different. Moreover, new energy vehicles from independent car companies have risen sharply. Taking Geely Auto as an example, the comparison between H1 Tesla and Geely in 2021 is the difference between M3, MY and oil-to-electric geometric A/C and online car-hailing Dihao EV; while 22 is the difference between M3, MY and high-end model Zekr 001.
What is Tesla’s industrial chain? The sharp drop in Tesla's industrial chain targets today is mainly because the market is worried that Tesla will transmit all the pressure to the upstream after its price cut, and the concern is that this indirectly verifies that Tesla's demand is not good. In fact, both worries are too much. We believe that the certainty of Tesla's industrial chain is still very high. On the one hand, Tesla's bicycles are profitable, and the essence of subsequent price reduction is "price reduction after a sharp price increase", which is actually equivalent to "restoring the original price", so the pressure to the upstream industrial chain is not very contagious; on the other hand, although Tesla's advantage over its own brand is not as strong as 20 years old, the core factor at present is that it is too expensive now, and with more competitors, the cost-effectiveness is lower. Tesla is still the strongest new energy car brand with a very good user base. Basically, the consumer group who buys cars will compare Tesla before making decisions. Therefore, we believe that after the price reduction, demand will be very good, and sales in 23 years are still very certain.
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