Republican Party had held advantage only once prior to 2022
共和黨連續第三年在黨派關係方面保持優勢
共和黨在 2022 年之前只佔據過一次優勢
作者：Jeffrey M. Jones
Jeffrey M. Jones, Ph.D., has served as a Gallup Senior Editor since 2000, overseeing research and conducting analysis for Gallup's U.S. polling and other public release surveys. His research on public opinion and voting behavior has been published in academic journals and edited books. 傑弗里·M·瓊斯博士自2000年起擔任蓋洛普高級編輯，負責監督蓋洛普美國民意調查及其他公開發布的調查的研究並進行分析。他關於民意和投票行為的研究成果發表於學術期刊並編著書籍。
專業領域：美國民意調查與研究
華盛頓特區——2024年，美國人的政黨偏好依然分歧很大，共和黨連續第三年略佔優勢。總體而言，46%的美國人認為自己是共和黨人或傾向於共和黨的獨立人士，而45%的美國人認為自己是民主黨人或傾向於民主黨的獨立人士。在2022年之前，共和黨僅在1991年有過一次微弱優勢。
這些結果基於 2024 年蓋洛普電話調查的綜合數據，涵蓋對 14,000 多名美國成年人的採訪。
蓋洛普調查了美國人的政治認同，包括共和黨人、民主黨人還是獨立人士。然後，這些政治認同為獨立人士的人會被問及他們更傾向於共和黨還是民主黨。
自 1991 年以來，蓋洛普一直在持續測量獨立人士的政治傾向。在這段時間的大部分時間裡，民主黨在綜合黨派認同和傾向方面至少略佔優勢，包括從 1992 年到 2001 年、2004 年到 2010 年以及 2012 年到 2021 年。
民主黨的優勢在 2008 年最大，為 12 個百分點，但到 2011 年則縮小至零，之後十年又穩定在 2 至 6 個百分點的範圍內。
過去三年，人們對美國局勢發展不甚滿意，對美國經濟的評價也較為負面，民主黨總統喬·拜登的工作支持率也較低，共和黨略佔優勢，僅領先一到兩個百分點。在執政的民主黨面臨如此嚴峻的形勢下，共和黨最終在2022年大選中贏得了美國眾議院的控制權，並在2024年大選中贏得了美國參議院的控制權和總統職位。
近期，民主黨在黨派歸屬上的優勢已轉向共和黨，這一趨勢在大多數美國主要群體中都較為明顯。在西班牙裔美國人（從27%增至36%）、年輕人（從33%增至39%）、低收入人群（從36%增至41%）、無大學學歷人群（從45%增至50%）、天主教徒（從42%增至47%）以及黑人（從12%增至17%）中，共和黨認同度和傾向的增幅均略高於平均水平。
自 2021 年以來，共和黨黨員人數幾乎沒有增加的子群體包括大學畢業生（從 41% 增加到 42%）、65 歲及以上的成年人（從 49% 增加到 48%）、非西班牙裔白人（從 53% 增加到 54%）、已婚人士（從 51% 增加到 52%）、高收入人群（從 47% 增加到 48%）和中等收入人群（從 46% 增加到 47%）、政治自由主義者（從 9% 增加到 10%）和非宗教人士（從 25% 增加到 26%）。
獨立身份識別率保持43%的歷史高位
當初次被問及2024年的政治立場時，美國人最有可能認同自己是獨立人士（43%），其中28%的人表示自己是民主黨人，28%的人表示自己是共和黨人。自2011年以來，每年都有至少39%的美國人認同自己是政治獨立人士，最新數據追平了2014年和2023年創下的最高紀錄。
在過去三年中，每年自認為共和黨人和民主黨人的美國人比例均相等。這與前幾年相比形成了鮮明對比，當時更多的美國成年人自認為是民主黨人，儘管在1991年、2002年和2003年，共和黨略微領先，而在2004年和2005年，兩黨勢均力敵，情況並非如此。自1988年以來，蓋洛普一直採用統一的電話訪談方法詢問初始黨派認同問題。
兩黨在無傾向性政黨認同度方面都接近歷史最低點。民主黨在2023年創下的歷史最低紀錄是27%。在2015年之前，該比例從未低於30%，但過去10年中有6年一直低於這一水平。
共和黨認同率的最低點是2013年的25%。上一次達到30%或以上是在2006年，過去六年一直穩定在28%左右。因此，過去三年共和黨總體歸屬率的上升，歸因於更多獨立人士傾向於共和黨，而非更多美國人直接認同自己是共和黨人。
底線
長期以來，民主黨在美國成年人口中的政黨偏好至少略佔優勢。但在過去三年里，在不受歡迎的拜登政府的領導下，共和黨的認同和傾向已經超過了民主黨。因此，隨着共和黨準備在未來兩到四年內控制聯邦政府，這種政黨偏好有可能重新轉向民主黨。這種情況是否會發生，很大程度上取決於美國人對共和黨執政下的國家狀況感到滿意還是不滿。
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans’ political party preferences remained closely divided in 2024, with the Republican Party having a slight edge for the third consecutive year. Overall, 46% of Americans identified as Republicans or independents who leaned toward the Republican Party, compared with 45% who identified as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. Prior to 2022, Republicans only had a slight edge once before, in 1991.
These results are based on combined data from 2024 Gallup telephone surveys, encompassing interviews with more than 14,000 U.S. adults.
Gallup asks Americans if they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. Those who identify as political independents are then asked whether they lean more toward the Republican Party or the Democratic Party.
Gallup has measured the political leanings of independents consistently since 1991. For most of this time, the Democratic Party has held at least a slight edge in combined party identification and leaning, including from 1992 through 2001, 2004 through 2010, and 2012 through 2021.
The Democratic advantage was largest in 2008, at 12 percentage points, but shrank to zero by 2011 before settling into the two-to-six-point range for the next decade.
In the past three years, which were marked by low satisfaction with the way things were going in the United States, negative evaluations of the U.S. economy and low job approval ratings for Democratic President Joe Biden, Republicans have held slight advantages of one to two points. Amid this challenging climate for the incumbent Democratic Party, Republicans won control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 elections and the U.S. Senate and the presidency in the 2024 elections.
The recent shift from a Democratic to Republican advantage in party affiliation is apparent in most major subgroups of Americans. There have been slightly larger-than-average increases in Republican identification and leaning among Hispanic Americans (from 27% to 36%), young adults (33% to 39%), lower-income Americans (36% to 41%), those without a college degree (45% to 50%), Catholics (42% to 47%) and Black Americans (12% to 17%).
Among the subgroups showing little to no increase in Republican Party affiliation since 2021 are college graduates (from 41% to 42%), adults aged 65 and older (49% to 48%), non-Hispanic White people (53% to 54%), married people (51% to 52%), upper-income (47% to 48%) and middle-income Americans (46% to 47%), political liberals (9% to 10%), and nonreligious Americans (25% to 26%).
Independent Identification Holds at Record-High 43%
When initially asked for their political party identification in 2024, Americans were most likely to identify as independents (43%), with 28% saying they were Democrats and 28% Republicans. Pluralities of at least 39% of Americans have identified as political independents each year since 2011, with the latest figure tying the record high, previously registered in 2014 and 2023.
In each of the past three years, equal percentages of Americans have identified as Republicans and Democrats. This contrasts with earlier years when more U.S. adults identified as Democrats, although this was not the case in 1991, 2002 and 2003, when Republicans led by a slight margin, and in 2004 and 2005, when the parties tied. Gallup has asked the initial party identification question using a consistent telephone interviewing methodology since 1988.
Both parties are near their historic low points in unleaned party identification. Democrats’ record low was 27%, measured in 2023. After not registering under 30% until 2015, the percentage has been below that mark in six of the past 10 years.
The low point in Republican identification was 25% in 2013. It was last at 30% or above in 2006 and has been stable at around 28% over the past six years. As such, the increase in total Republican Party affiliation over the past three years is attributable to more independents leaning Republican rather than more Americans identifying outright as Republican.
Bottom Line
The Democratic Party long had at least a slight edge in party preferences among the U.S. adult population. But in the past three years, under an unpopular Biden administration, Republican identification and leaning has exceeded that of Democrats. It is possible, then, that with Republicans poised to control the federal government for the next two to four years, that party preferences will shift back toward the Democrats. Whether that happens will depend largely on whether Americans are pleased or displeased with the state of the nation under Republican rule.
