自打莫迪上台之后，印度一直就铆足了劲儿想要发展制造业，以工业强国。如今发展制造业差不多是印度的基本国策，印度政府的大部分动作都是为这个目标服务的。
在发展制造业这件事情上，印度的压力非常大，可说是迫在眉睫——印度社会的许多问题，早已积重难返，靠着温和的手段收效有限，只有大力发展制造业，才能提供足够的工作机会，来实现农业到工业的转型，印度才有可能在现代化改革中翻盘；可制造业这个事情需要时间积累，绝非一朝一夕能成，起步得越晚，成功的机会就越小。印度网友问：印度能否在制造业领域对中国实现弯道超车？这引起各国网友的关注和热议，我们看看他们的观点。
问题：印度能不能在制造业领域对中国实现弯道超车？
英国网友安德鲁•罗伯茨的回答
I believe that most people in China will be very grateful for the development of low-cost manufacturing industry, because it may retain millions of employees and help improve their living standards. Some answers seem to think that it is easy to establish a low-cost manufacturing industry. Believe me, this is not the case. Let me tell you a story from the perspective of China to explain why China is in a unique position to develop and benefit from successful manufacturing.
我相信中国大多数人都会对低成本制造业的发展非常感激，因为它有可能留住了数以百万计的就业人员，帮助提高他们的生活水平。一些答案似乎认为建立低成本制造业是一件容易的事情，相信我，事实并非如此。下面我从中国的角度给你讲一个故事，解释为什么中国能够处于发展成功制造业并从中受益的独特地位。
Before the reform and opening up, China pursued an economic model similar to that of the Soviet Union, focusing on heavy industry. However, due to inherent problems such as low efficiency, some state-owned factories did not do very well after the economic reform. The wages of workers and engineers cannot match the quotations of market-oriented private enterprises at all. Many of these skilled engineers and workers either quit, were fired from state-owned factories, or worked for small private enterprises.
在改革开放之前，中国追求一种类似于苏联的经济模式，重点突出重工业。但由于效率低下等固有问题，经济改革后，有些国营工厂做得不太好。工人和工程师的工资根本无法与市场化的私营企业的报价相匹配，这些熟练工程师和工人中的许多人要么退出，要么被国有工厂解雇，要么去为小型私营企业工作。
What I want to say is that even before these low-cost manufacturing industries began in the 1980s, China already had a considerable number of skilled workers and engineers, who played an important role in developing the next generation of workers.
我想说的是，即使在80年代这些低成本制造业开始之前，中国已经拥有相当数量的技术工人和工程师，这些人在发展下一代工人方面发挥了重要作用。
The low-cost manufacturing industry has rapidly flourished, providing a large number of employment opportunities, enabling low skilled Chinese people to participate in the global manufacturing industry in combination with the traditional rural economy. This is often overlooked, but in fact it is an incredible thing, because this way of participation has changed the way a person sees the world.
低成本制造业很快蓬勃发展，提供了大量就业机会，使具有低技能的中国人能够与传统农村经济相结合参与全球制造业。这往往被忽视，但事实上是一件令人难以置信的事情，因为这种参与方式改变了一个人看待世界的方式。
Imagine that a person born and raised in a rural community with the lowest education or skills has the opportunity to work in a low-cost manufacturing facility and earn more than he gets from a household farmer. This gives him a chance to get rid of the traditional rural community and realize that he can also be an important part of economic globalization, because putting the wrong screw on the iPhone may cause trouble for Australian consumers for weeks.
想象一下，一个在农村社区出生和长大的教育或技能最低的人有机会在低成本制造设施中工作，获得比他在家务农得到的报酬还要高，这让他有机会摆脱传统的农村社区，了解到他也可以是经济全球化得重要一环，因为在iPhone上放错螺丝可能会给澳大利亚消费者带来数周的烦恼。
What this worker can also learn is that, unlike his father, who is bound by the land he lives in, he is free to do whatever he wants. This fundamental change in the attitude of young people in rural China may be more important than the money they earn. I believe that the catalytic effect of this change on attitudes has also played an important role in the rise of many small enterprises and new entrepreneurs in China.
这个工人还可以学到的是，与被他居住的土地束缚的父亲不同，他有自由做任何他想做的事。中国农村年轻人态度的这种根本变化可能比他们赚的钱更重要。我相信，这种转变对态度的催化影响也在中国许多小企业和新企业家的崛起中发挥了重要作用。
In the past 20-30 years, low-cost manufacturing has developed from a single workshop to what the government likes to call an industrial cluster. This means that a commercial ecosystem has basically been formed in this place. For example, an assembly plant with a radius of 20 kilometers, combined with good infrastructure, has significantly reduced commercial costs.
在过去20-30年中，低成本制造业已经从单个车间发展成为政府喜欢称之为工业集群的地方。这意味着这个地方基本上形成了一个商业生态系统，例如，一个半径为20公里的装配式工厂，与良好的基础设施相结合，显著降低了商业成本。
Although it may be easy to move a plant overseas, it may take more than a few years to move the entire industrial cluster overseas, which is why I think most low-cost manufacturing industries in China cannot be replicated overnight in another low-cost country. In addition, more complex manufacturing processes involving more levels of upstream/downstream partners are even more difficult to be completely transferred overseas. Therefore, despite the rising labor costs, China's low-cost manufacturing industry may still have a cost advantage.
虽然将一种植物移居海外可能很容易，但将整个工业集群移居海外可能需要几年以上的时间，这就是为什么我认为中国大部分低成本制造业不能在另一个低成本国家一夜之间复制得原因。此外，涉及上游/下游合作伙伴更多层次的更复杂的制造过程甚至更难完全转移到海外。因此，尽管劳动力成本上升，中国的低成本制造业可能仍然具有成本优势。
Finally, I just want to say that I think low-cost manufacturing is also beneficial to India. Some answers suggest that India should pursue the same high-tech manufacturing economy as Germany. But I don't think this is suitable for India. To become a high-tech manufacturing base like Germany, you need a small but highly educated workforce. Well, India has some of the greatest engineering schools, producing a highly educated workforce roughly the same size as Germany's population, but again, how many billion uneducated people are there? Like China, India has a large population of low skilled people.
最后，我只想说，我认为低成本制造业也有利于印度。一些答案表明，印度应该追求与德国相同的高科技制造经济。但我认为这一点不适合印度。要成为像德国这样的高科技制造基地，你需要拥有规模小但受过高等教育的劳动力。好吧，印度拥有一些最伟大的工程学校，生产的受过高等教育的劳动力与德国人口的规模大致相同，但同样，还有几十亿没有受过教育的人呢？与曾经的中国一样，印度也有大量低技能人口。
Although well-to-do children with good education in India can become programmers in Silicon Valley, what can a large number of people with the least education and skills there do? Although programming is a very good skill, it is too difficult for most people. But I fell in love with it after four years of college study. However, people from rural society have limited opportunities to obtain appropriate education or technology.
虽然印度受过良好教育的富裕儿童可以成为硅谷的程序员，但那里受过最少教育和最低技能的大量人可以做些什么？虽然编程是一项很好的技能，但它对大多数人来说都太难了，但我在大学学习了4年后就爱上了它，可来自农村社会的人，他们获得适当教育或技术的机会有限。
On the other hand, low-cost manufacturing requires less skills. Any able-bodied person with normal IQ can receive training in manufacturing. As I said earlier, the most important thing is to let people leave their ancestral rural communities and enter industrialized cities. In this way, you can also industrialize the ideas of young people, so that they and their children have the potential to do greater things.
另一方面，低成本制造需要更少的技能，任何智商正常的身体能人都可以接受制造业工作的培训。正如我早些时候所说，最重要的事情是让人们离开祖先农村社区，进入工业化城市，这样，你还将年轻人的思想工业化，让他们和他们的孩子有潜力去做更伟大的事情。
印度网友S.K.玛尼的回答
I will not use the word "competition" because it is too bold for a country like India at this stage, because China is the manufacturing center of the world, and 90% of India's household products come from China.
我不会使用“竞争”这个词，因为它在这个阶段对印度这样的国家来说会过于大胆，因为中国是世界的制造中心，印度也有90%的家居产品来自中国。
棉签
It is not a highly technical product and does not require too many technical specifications to manufacture it.
它不是技术性很强的产品，制造它不需要太多的技术规范。
Therefore, India can start from small things, which are easy to manufacture. It does not need large capital, but can start from small things.
因此，印度可以从小事做起，制造起来容易，不需要大资本，可以从小事做起。
We only need a small machine like the one below to make cotton swabs. It is very practical in China and needs to be imported from China because it is cheap there.
我们只需要像下面这样的小机器来制造棉签，它在中国很实用，需要从中国进口，因为那里便宜。
Or take socks as an example. 80% of India's socks are imported from Datong, China. Now if we make them in India, local consumption will be satisfied.
或者以袜子为例，印度80%的袜子从中国大同市进口，现在如果我们在印度制造，那么当地消费将得到满足。
The above is just a small example. I can list thousands of products. These products are not technical and do not require too much capital, but they need machines. They can be imported from China. The government needs to make such imports not affected by the customs. Because we cannot manufacture such machines, if we only import machines for small products, we can establish a low-cost manufacturing industry in India.
以上只是小例子，我可以列出上千种产品，这些产品不是技术性的，不需要太多资本，但需要机器，可以从中国进口，政府需要使这种进口不受海关的影响，因为我们制造不出这种机器，所以如果我们只进口制造小产品的机器，我们可以在印度建立低成本制造业。
All business licenses, including shop behavior registration, are prohibited, because this is the place where corruption starts and enters the enterprise. If you need to start a business, it should not be bound by all licenses, so that one can focus on the enterprise, rather than avoid relationships to obtain business licenses.
禁止所有创业许可证，包括商店行为注册等，因为这是腐败开始和进入企业的地方，如果需要创业，那么它应该不受所有许可证的约束，这样一个人就可以专注于企业，而不是躲跑关系来获得创业许可。
China has achieved prosperity in just 40 years, not because of God's gifts, but because of the planning efforts of the government and the people. Up to now, there are four economic and trade centers in China that are particularly active. China is the pioneer of special economic zones, and the Shenzhen World Trade Center is the most eye-catching World Trade Center.
中国在短短40年内实现了繁荣，不是靠上帝得恩赐，而是靠政府和人民的规划努力。截至目前，在中国，有4个经贸中心特别活跃，中国是经济特区的先驱，深圳世贸中心是最引人注目的世贸中心。
All these economic development zones are located along the coast of China. The advantage in this respect is that sea transportation can reduce the transportation cost by 15%, and the export based manufacturing industry is based on the cost line, so it can save the time for transportation to ports and the world market.
所有这些经济开发区都位于中国沿海。这方面的优势是，海运可以将交通运输成本降低15%，以出口为基础的制造业以成本线为基础，因此可以节省交通运输到港口和世界市场的时间。
India is dwarfed by India. There are 235 economic development zones in India, none of which is fully functional, economically active and without systematic planning.
印度一比相形见绌，印度有235个经济开发区，没有是一个功能齐全、经济活跃得，而且没有系统性规划。
Some economic development zones have no planned production and industry, so if you plan to let Nokia factories purchase raw materials from Chennai or the south, most of your costs and time will be wasted on transportation and material procurement.
有些经济开发区没有计划生产和工业，因此如果您计划让诺基亚的工厂采购来自钦奈或南部的原始材料，那么您的大部分成本和时间将浪费在运输和材料采购上。
Therefore, we need to plan the manufacturing base to the 7500km coastline of India, which will benefit us from simple inland transport by sea, because our infrastructure is poor, which will help us export to nearby countries.
因此，我们需要将制造基地规划到印度7500公里得海岸线上，这将使我们受益于简单的海运内陆运输，因为我们的基础设施不好，这将帮助我们出口到附近国家。
• Electricity controlled by the government in most states should be open to the private sector, so competition will lower prices and enable the production of cheap and affordable products.
•大多数州由政府控制的电力应向私营部门开放，因此竞争将降低价格，从而能够生产廉价和消费者负担得起的产品。
The planning for the next 25 years should be carried out in the context of the reform of the education system. In the education system, degrees in product design, product manufacturing, consumption and small product packaging should be launched. China plans to launch Made in China 2025 in 2013, focusing on high-tech products and working on them.
未来25年的规划应在教育系统变革的背景下进行，在教育系统中，应启动产品设计、产品制造、消费和小产品包装的学位。中国计划在2013年推出2025年中国制造，将重点转向高科技产品并在其上开展工作。
Another thing India needs to learn is the construction of sales points:
还有一个需要印度学习的是销售点的建设：
China has developed its business through indoor and outdoor exhibitions. The largest exhibition in China is the Canton Fair, which is held twice every May and April. Every year, the Chinese government holds an exhibition in Guangzhou and most Chinese suppliers display their products here. This exhibition alone has won 5% to 7% of China's total export orders. This exhibition is attended by the world's largest importer. China has exhibitions every day.
中国通过室内展览和室外展览发展了业务，中国最大的展览是广交会，每年5月和4月举办两次。每年，中国政府在广州市举办的展览和大部分中国供应商在这里展示产品。仅本次展览就获得了中国总出口订单的5%至7%，本次展览由世界最大的进口商参加，中国每天都有展览。
The permanent and planned wholesale market is located in Yiwu City, China. Zhejiang Province, China was once the largest wholesale market for small commodities in the world. Toys, household goods and other things came from Yiwu. The market started in 1978 and is located on the shoulder of the road. Now it is a permanent exhibition place for this product. There are 80000 stores selling Chinese goods to the world. This market is a one-stop solution for small commodity importers:
永久性和计划中的批发市场位于中国义乌市，中国浙江省曾经是世界上最大的小商品批发市场，玩具和家居用品等所有东西都来自义乌。该市场始于1978年，位于路肩上，现在是该产品的永久展示地，有80000家商店向世界销售中国商品。这个市场是小商品进口商的一站式解决方案：
At the same time, China also holds exhibitions of Chinese products around the world to promote Chinese enterprises and products, while Mumbai only holds exhibitions about 4 times a year
与此同时，中国还在世界各地举办中国产品展览，推广中国企业和产品，而孟买每年仅举办4次左右的展览
The Indian government needs to plan a permanent business center, which can be used as a one-stop contact or only representative for Indian small product manufacturers, because the Mumbai wholesale market is currently located in the fortress area of Ar Street, Crawford Market, Sutar chawl and other crowded areas.
印度政府需要规划永久性商业中心，该中心可以作为印度小产品制造商的一站式接触或仅具有代表性，因为目前孟买批发市场位于Ar街、克罗福德市场、sutar chawl等拥挤地区的堡垒地区。
We only need to start the manufacturing industry in the right direction, and we can only achieve this goal with the help of China, because they have the technology we need and focus on small products.
我们只需要像现在这样的正确方向来开始制造业，我们只能在中国的帮助下实现这一目标，因为他们拥有我们所需要的技术，专注于小型产品。
We need to plan and strive to enter the manufacturing industry. We do not need to compete with China, because in this case, we will not succeed in the manufacturing industry, but we need China's help to complete the customization task of small machines, which will promote the manufacturing of small commodities. Without a license, the ease of availability of small warehouses and manufacturing will help small manufacturers develop.
我们需要计划努力向制造业进军，我们不必与中国竞争，因为在这种情况下，我们不会在制造业取得成功，但我们需要得到中国的帮助，完成小机器的定制任务，这将促进小型商品的制造。在没有许可证的情况下，小型仓库和制造业的轻松可用性将有助于小型制造商得发展。
At this stage, just peddling "Made in India" and the backward silicon chip or mobile phone manufacturing industry will not help us. We need to plan our work in improving the manufacturing industry, and then work according to the government's plan.
在这一阶段，仅仅兜售“印度制造”和落后的硅芯片或手机制造业对我们没有帮助。我们需要规划我们在提升制造业方面的工作，然后根据政府的计划开展工作。
海外网友丹尼尔•柯呼尔特的回答
There are many reasons why this is unlikely:
不太可能的原因有很多：
Water industrialization requires a large amount of fresh water, and the current population does not have enough capacity (peak water shortage).
水-工业化需要大量的淡水，而目前人口没有足够的容量（峰值水资源短缺）。
Electricity - Industrialization needs electricity, and there is not enough capacity. One quarter of the population is still outside the grid, and power failure is more common.
电力-工业化需要电力，而且没有足够的产能，四分之一的人口仍在电网外，停电更是较常便饭。
Transport infrastructure does not match the growing population. At present, land transportation is underdeveloped, and the capacity of railways and ports reaches the peak, which affects the flow of materials, personnel and products.
运输-基础设施与不断增长的人口不匹配，目前陆路交通不发达，铁路和港口容量达到峰值，这影响了材料、人员和产品的流动。
• Culture - With a conservative population and low risk aversion, it is safer to hoard gold than investing in tractors (which may be stolen), company stocks (which may be appropriately/divested in corrupt transactions) or lending cash (which may not be rebated). Therefore, despite the gold reserves of 3 trillion US dollars, the Indian government must travel around the world to seek foreign investment as the local people hope.
•文化-人口保守且风险规避能力低，囤积黄金比投资拖拉机（可能被盗）、公司股票（可能在腐败交易中被适当/资产剥离）或借出现金（可能不会回扣）更安全。因此，尽管有3万亿美元的黄金储备，但印度政府必须像当地人所希望的那样，走遍世界寻求外国投资。
Caste/Conservative/Apartheid - The workforce depends on birth accidents, not capabilities.
种姓/保守/种族隔离-劳动力取决于出生事故，而不是能力。
Language - Different from China's single writing system, India has 66 major local languages, which makes communication more complex, increases communication costs, and hinders the creation of a true single/national market.
语言——与中国的单一书写系统不同，印度有66个主要地方邦语言，使通信更加复杂，增加了沟通成本，并阻碍创建真正的单一/国家市场。
Talent - Unlike China, India's top 1% of engineering talents work in western countries. The best choice is to flee this country. Many people have little loyalty to their country of birth.
人才——与中国不同，印度前1%的工程人才在西方国家部门工作，最好的选择是逃离这个国家，许多人对自己的出生国几乎没有忠诚度。
