《海洋預報》| 基於海溫因子的傳遞函數模型在黃海綠潮規模預測中的應用

2022年10月23日19:50:05 資訊 1511

基於海溫因子的傳遞函數模型在黃海綠潮規模預測中的應用

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讀書小筆記

作者：劉旭^{1 2}梁穎祺¹王兆毅¹李志傑¹王崢¹季軒梁¹何恩業¹

單位：1. 國家海洋環境預報中心, 北京 100081;

2. 北京林業大學經濟管理學院, 北京 100083

分類號：X55

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2022·39·第四期（91-101）

摘要：為尋求基於海溫生態因子的綠潮規模預測方法，採用2010—2019年國家衛星海洋應用中心黃海綠潮衛星遙感資料和日本氣象廳融合海表溫度數據，利用協整檢驗和Granger因果檢驗方法對綠潮覆蓋面積和海溫之間的長期均衡和因果關係進行分析。結果顯示：兩者間存在長期協整性，海溫是綠潮規模變化的Granger原因。通過建立協整模型和傳遞函數模型，開展了海溫對綠潮規模影響的定量計算實例研究。結果表明：兩種模型均可有效地刻畫2010—2017年綠潮規模的變化過程，2018—2019年綠潮規模的預測結果與遙感實況較吻合，體現了模型的可靠性和可移植性。傳遞函數模型預測結果的RMSE為160.94，MAE為109.70，整體略優於協整模型的RMSE（171.40）和MAE （122.48），說明數據經預白化處理後可提高預測精準度，海溫與綠潮覆蓋面積具有動態相關性。

關鍵詞：綠潮；海溫；協整模型；傳遞函數模型；Granger因果檢驗；遙感

Abstract：In order to find a method to predict the green tide scale based on sea temperature, the Yellow Sea green tide satellite remote sensing data of the National Satellite Ocean Application Service and the merged sea surface temperature (SST) data of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) from 2010 to 2019 is used to analyze the longterm equilibrium and causal relationship between green tide coverage area and SST based on co-integration test and Granger causality test. The results show that there is long-term co-integration between green tide coverage area and SST, and SST is the Granger cause of the green tide scale variation. The quantitative calculation case study of the influence of sea temperature on green tide scale is carried out by establishing a cointegration model and transfer function model It is shown that both models could effectively depict the variation process of green tide scale from 2010 to 2017, and the prediction results of green tide scale from 2018 to 2019 agree well with the remote sensing monitoring data, which reflects the reliability and portability of the models. The root mean square error (RMSE) and mean average error (MAE) of the predicted results of the transfer function model is 160.94 and 109.70, respectively, which is slightly better than the co-integration model with the RMSE of 171.40 and the MAE of 122.48, indicating that the prediction accuracy could be improved by the pre-whitening process of the SST. Moreover, SST and green tide area has a dynamic correlation.

Key words：green tide; sea temperature; cointegration model; transfer function model; Granger causality test;

remote sensing