Source: Content compiled from semianalysis by Semiconductor Industry Observer (ID: icbank), thank you.
For the case of the Japanese government's large-scale subsidy of 476 billion yen to TSMC's Kumamoto wafer factory in Japan, former foreign-funded analyst Lu Xingzhi said that the subsidy for the Japanese government depends on the free subsidy, or whether the government and customers jointly invested and forced to get into the trap of technology transfer . He himself has never been optimistic about every overseas investment case of TSMC and called on employees to follow and gamble if they don’t need it. The best way to observe is to see if the executives and employees of Wafertech, , Songjiang , and Nanjing factories have been widely promoted faster than those of Taiwan factories.
Lu Xingzhi said on his personal Facebook fan page that the subsidies for the Japanese government are simply because the subsidies seem to be more moral than the United States, but I still ask me to share my interpretation with all the fans. We must first figure out whether this is a free subsidy or a Japanese government fund investment?
1.Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry If the free subsidy given to the company T accounts for 43% of the total investment amount, it means that the annual depreciation expenses will be reduced by 43% in the future. The depreciation expenses in the first five years should have accounted for about 50 to 60% of the operating costs, but now it is 43% less, which contributes 22-26ppts to the gross profit margin, which should offset the high labor and factory construction costs of Japanese factories.
2. However, if this subsidy is non-free, it is only an investment of 476 billion yen from the Japanese government's semiconductor revitalization fund, indicating that the Japanese government will hold about 43% or less of the company's Japanese factory (a fewer means reducing the technology shares to the company T). With other investors, the company T will hold only half of the shares. The company T is more like helping the Japanese government work and transferring technology (there should be technology shares). To be honest, this will have little impact on the overall profit of the company T in the next 10 years. Originally, every new order for Japanese customers of US$100, the company T could make 20 to 30 yuan, and after the factory depreciation, it could make more than 50 yuan. Now, Kumamoto's shareholders will be diluted, and in the future, the revenue and profit contribution of Japanese customers to the company T will be diluted.
3. As far as I know, the company's T Japanese factory should mainly be the sensor and ISP supporting chips of CIS, and attract automotive chip customers. But if SONY accounts for about a much different proportion of revenue and investment (20%) of the company's T Japanese factory, it is equivalent to investing in raising cattle and eating your own beef, so the difference in revenue and investment ratio must be calculated.
4. My conclusion is to understand that the company T Japanese factory and the American factory are the wholly-owned factories of T, which are free subsidies from various governments, or are the technology transfer factories that the government and customers jointly invest and force the company T to enter the trap. If the latter is obviously not beneficial to the company T and its shareholders, then why the company T insists on doing it should be some reasons why we don’t know. To be honest, I have never been optimistic about every overseas investment case of the company T (the past and future investment cases should have significantly lower profit contribution than revenue contribution). It is also recommended that employees not encounter ceiling bottlenecks in immigration and children's education and consider changing jobs, there is really no need to follow them. The best way to observe is to see if the executives and employees who stayed in Wafertech, Songjiang and Nanjing factories in the past have been promoted faster than Taiwan factories.
*Disclaimer: This article is original by the author. The content of the article is the author's personal opinion. The reprint of the Semiconductor Industry Observer is only to convey a different view, and does not mean that the Semiconductor Industry Observer agrees or supports this view. If you have any objections, please contact the Semiconductor Industry Observer.
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