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Market news
Foreign market price: Taiwan Formosa Plastics, China announced its June PVC quotation, down from US$120-150/ton month-on-month, CFR India lowered 150 at US$1410/ton, CFR China lowered 130 at US$1210/ton, and CFR Southeast Asia lowered 120 at US$1290/ton.
Calcium carbide: The price of calcium carbide remains stable, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among all parties and a different mentality. After the downstream PVC profit margin is squeezed, there is an expectation of marginal tightening of the device maintenance. The shipment status of calcium carbide companies has changed slightly, and downstream arrivals are expected to improve.
Spot market
On May 18, domestic commodities generally fell. The previously released domestic April economic data was under pressure, resulting in a loss of market confidence. In addition, today's Formosa Plastics pre-sale price in June was significantly lowered, and it was lower than expected, which brought downward pressure to PVC again. Futures prices opened low and closed low, but the spot price was limited, with a decrease of 50-100 yuan/ton. Although the market has expectations for the recovery of downstream demand after Shanghai's gradual unblocking, demand has not really improved yet. Short-term prices are more affected by cost support than consumption, market buying is not prosperous, and spot premiums have increased significantly. However, as futures prices fall, the advantage of point-price supply increases, and the number of transactions on point-price listings increases, and the overall transactions have improved compared with yesterday.
points in the region, the mainstream price in Hebei is between 8600-8750 yuan/ton (delivered), the market price in North China has been lowered, the source of point-price goods is obvious, and the transaction has improved compared with yesterday.
The market price in East China is lowered, with the mainstream transaction price of East China Type 5 at 8670-8800 yuan/ton, and the market price is mainly listed on the spot price, and the low-end transaction volume is significantly increased.
The market price in South China has been reduced by a narrow margin, with the mainstream transaction price of Type 5 between 8750 and 8850 yuan/ton. The short-term price is more affected by cost support than consumption, and the market is not prosperous. However, as the futures price falls, the source of point prices is obvious, and the market price listing has increased. The transaction has improved compared with yesterday, but it is still below the average level, with the average transaction price at 8790 yuan/ton.
Futures Market
PVC Futures afternoon closing price: The main V2209 contract closed at 8463 yuan/ton in the afternoon, a decrease of 2.15%, the settlement price was 8544 yuan, and the holdings were about 420,000 lots, an increase of 51,064 lots month-on-month, and the transaction was about 619,000 lots, a decrease of 11,310 lots month-on-month.
Zhongshulian Views
On Wednesday, Formosa Plastics' June PVC quotation was lowered by US$120-150/ton month-on-month, which was lower than the market's previous expectations. In addition, the domestic April economic data released at the beginning of the week was under pressure. These factors have caused the market's risk sentiment to decline significantly in the recent market, and the PVC futures price fluctuated and fell. The current market trend is more trading macro expectation logic. As for PVC's own fundamentals, the current operating rate is not much changed compared with the beginning of the month. It is expected to continue to reduce volume in May under the control of maintenance, but the current range is temporarily limited. Demand is delayed due to the impact of the epidemic, which has led to a weakening of the margin of supply and demand in May. However, crude oil prices remain strong recently. At the same time, under the background of rising domestic calcium carbide prices, high costs play a marginal role in the market. As the impact of the epidemic on demand gradually weakens, with the expectation of strong cost support and improvements in the supply and consumer ends, the recent weak reality expectation logic is expected to end in stages. Treat the short-term oscillation perspective, and wait for the lower margin or upper margin to get closer, and you can continue to consider the opportunity to be low. (For reference only, it is not a basis for entering the market)
Upstream raw materials and alkali
As of May 18:
Wuhai calcium carbide price is 4,450 yuan/ton, stable.
Shandong calcium carbide price is 4,900 yuan/ton, stable.
alkali: The price of caustic soda tablet alkali is stable.
As of May 18:
Shandong 32% caustic soda 1215 yuan/ton, stable.
Inner Mongolia 99% tablets of alkali are at 3950 yuan/ton, stable.
On May 17, the Asian ethylene market fell, CFR Northeast Asia quoted US$1146-1156/ton, down US$20/ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quoted US$1196-1206/ton, down US$20/ton.
upstream construction started
As of May 12, PVC started this week and increased to 82.43%, up 0.26% month-on-month and down 0.34% year-on-year. Three new maintenance companies were added this week. Some maintenance companies last week continued to this week, but the companies that had previously stopped and repaired loads may increase the construction load during the week, and the repair losses were slightly reduced.
The downstream of South China started construction
Inventory
As of 5.13, the week of social inventory was removed. The arrivals were mainly reduced due to the epidemic and the early suspension of installation of South China Railway.
East China is 241,700 tons, a decrease of 53 month-on-month; an increase of 93,100 from the same period last year;
South China is 49,800 tons, a decrease of 4,000 from the same period last year, and 11,900 from the same period last year;
East China and South China are 291,500 tons, a decrease of 9,200 from the same period last year; 105,000 from the same period last year (Zhuochuang)
As of May 13,
The East China region was 236,600 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons month-on-month, an increase of 89,100 tons year-on-year;
The South China region was 65,100 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons month-on-month, an increase of 6,900 tons year-on-year;
East China and South China were 301,700 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons month-on-month, an increase of 96,000 tons year-on-year (Longzhong)
Southwest inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 39,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 in the same period last year.
Main contract long and short positions
Main contract net long and short positions
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