market performance
| September 14 | closing price | day rise and fall | five-day rise and fall |
|---|---|---|---|
| PVC | 6343.00 yuan/ton | -3.51% | -0.97% |
variety fundamental
According to Tonghuashun iFinD data,
On September 14th, the price of PVC in East China is 6550.00 yuan/ton, which is 207.00 yuan/ton compared with the main futures price (6343.00 yuan/ton).
institutional view
Nanhua Futures: PVC supply and demand contradiction is moved backward
Yesterday, Formosa Plastics CFR mainland quotation fell to 840, with an internal discount of about 6800. Yesterday, the highest point of the market on the market was considered to be close to the import window opening, and the overall position was relatively high, giving a strong short-selling safety margin. The biggest change in near-end PVC is that the downstream has gone out of power limit and the operating rate has improved significantly after approaching the peak season. The samples of traders in East China, South China and East China have seen relatively obvious improvements. Traders' willingness to get goods increased significantly after seeing the downstream improvement, resulting in the sales of upstream inventory. The second point is that the overall supply recovery rate in September is lower than expected. At present, the production in September will not increase much compared to August. Overall, it remains low. The combination of supply and demand has led to a certain expectation of destocking in September in the nearest market, which is the wave of decline we saw in the nearest, but we believe that this is just a contradiction of backward shift for PVC, because it will be very difficult to continue in October. The main reason is that the supply regression and terminal orders are still relatively sluggish. In this case, the demand characterized by the current status may correspond more to the supplement of invisible inventory. Once this round of restocking is over, the market may be reversed. Overall, we still maintain a short view on the 01 contract.
