Many children and blessings have been a traditional Chinese concept since ancient times. It is believed that as long as there are many sons, the population is prosperous, the family is harmonious and happy, you will be blessed in the future. For example, a playmate in my childhood had many brothers and sisters, and his family was very poor. His parents planted a pomegranate tree in their yard. During the Chinese New Year, they always pasted the pomegranate tree with "seeds and blessings". The pomegranate tree indicates that there are many descendants, and future generations will make their mark and become rich and noble in the future.
With the advent of the era of "late marriage and late childbirth, one-child development", more and more people are beginning to discover that having more children brings pressure to the family, not blessings. For example, all of them are from the same village. Because families with fewer children are relatively good in all aspects and have higher investment in education, they are often more promising than those of families with more children. Therefore, many people have changed their fertility concept of "more children and more blessings" and are no longer willing to have more children.
Absolutely no one would have thought that my country, which has been introducing a series of birth restrictions due to the rapid population growth, has been worried about the continued decline in population. Data shows that from 2017 to 2021, the number of newborns in my country has declined sharply. Through the data, we know that after the second child was released in 2016, the number of newborns was 17.86 million, and it began to drop to 17.23 million in 2017, and it had fallen to 10.62 million by 2021.
For example, Anhui Province, the overall birth population in Anhui Province showed a cliff-like downward trend from 2017 to 2021.
and Shandong, with a birth population of 1.77 million in 2016, slightly dropped to 1.75 million in 2017, 1.33 million in 2018, 1.184 million in 2019, 870,000 in 2020, and 750,000 in 2021. The total decline in the past four years was as high as 57.1%, the first in the country.
Another example is Henan, which has always been known as a province with a large population, with a population of 1.42 million in 2016 and 1.4 million in 2017, but then it began to plummet. By 2020, Henan's population fell below the 1 million mark and fell below the 800,000 mark again in 2021. The number of births in Henan has dropped by 45% in the past five years, almost halfway.
It can be seen that the second child's effect is not good. Basically, after the number of newborns has risen briefly, it begins to fall sharply, which is enough to see that the second child's effect is not good.
data shows that in 2021, the number of newborns in my country was 10.62 million, the birth rate was 7.52‰, the population growth was only 480,000, and the natural growth rate was 0.34‰, which was only one step away from negative population growth.
In August this year, the National Health Commission "Qiushi" magazine published an article pointing out that China's total population growth rate has slowed down significantly and that the " 14th Five-Year Plan" period will enter a negative growth stage. According to the report "World Population Outlook 2022" released by the United Nations in July this year, China may experience negative population growth as early as 2023.
Usually, the number of elderly people over 60 years old has accounted for 10% of the total population internationally, or the elderly people over 65 years old accounted for 7% of the total population, that is, the region is an aging society. More than 20% are moderately aging society, and more than 30% are severely aging society.
Some economists predict that they will enter a moderately aging society that accounts for more than 14% in 2022, and a super aging society that accounts for more than 20% by around 2033. For example, in Japan, the elderly population over 65 years old accounts for as high as 29.1% of the total population, which means that about 1 out of 3 people is over 65 years old.
China's elderly care ratio is also rising, reaching 19.7% in 2020 and 21.1% in 2021. In other words, there is one in about 5 people over 60 years old.
To sum up, the current population situation facing my country is already very serious. Some experts believe that there are two reasons for the decline in fertility rate. One is the decrease in the number of women of childbearing age. Statistics show that the number of women of childbearing age aged 15-49 in 2021 decreased by about 5 million compared with 2020. Another is the delay in the marriage and childbirth age of young people, and the delay in the marriage and childbirth age of my country in the past 10 years has been 2 years old. Young people are unwilling to get married, so how can they have children? This is already explained by the reasons for the cliff-like decline in Anhui's birth population in recent years.
After the second child was born without success, the population alarm was "sounded"? Experts proposed a "new plan", and parents expressed their agreement with
After the second child was born in , the country liberalized the third child on May 31, 2021. In order to further optimize the birth policy, a couple can have three children and supporting support measures. This means that it is no longer realistic to just relax fertility and let young people have more children. Corresponding supporting measures must be provided to encourage fertility, so that it is possible to boost fertility rates.
Economist Ren Zeping believes that to solve the problem of declining fertility rates, housing issues are the key. For example, the current high housing prices are 50,000-60,000 yuan per square meter in first-tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Ordinary people cannot afford to buy a house without six bulging wallets. Even the housing prices in second-tier cities are around 30,000 yuan per square meter. The housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities are a little lower and the wages are also low. This is basically the same situation.
The second is that raising children is too high. On October 6, Yuwa population disclosed a set of cost data on raising children, except for illness. The cost of raising a child to 18 years old in China is 6.9 times that of per capita GDP, second only to South Korea. The cost of raising a child is 558,900 yuan. Based on the national disposable income of per capita in 2021, it will cost a family 16 years of income. If you raise it to graduate from university, it will cost 627,000 yuan. Children today cannot be raised in the past, but they still have to be cultivated to become talents. Shanghai has the highest cost of raising a child, which costs 1.026 million from birth to adulthood, followed by Beijing's 968,642 million.
population expertPopularity expertPresentation professor at Guanghua School of Management, Peking University Liang Jianzhang believes that there are many factors that affect fertility rates, and housing and education are the big ones. Liang Jianzhang once suggested that for families with multiple children, the short-term effect should be achieved quickly, and real money subsidies should be given. For example, a subsidy of 1 million yuan can be given for a third child. Instead of directly giving a cash reward of 1 million yuan, it can be part of the cash, and then it can be achieved through tax reduction and exemption of , housing purchase subsidy of , etc. Liang Jianzhang believes that countries with low fertility rates such as China and South Korea need to take out 10% of GDP for household subsidies in order to increase the fertility rate to the replacement level (the total fertility rate reaches 2.1). Economist Ren Zeping also put forward his own suggestions on encouraging childbirth: the suggestions put forward by Ren Zeping and Liang Jianzhang are very comprehensive, including many aspects such as early childhood, taxation, education, medical care and housing. Parents agree with this.
